okay good morning so welcome to the first class of the second semester this semester we are going to build on what we've learned the first semester um to better understand human history and to better understand what's happening in the world today and also to be able to predict the future okay so if you have been following current events and I hope you have there are now three major conflicts in the world the first and most devastating is the war in the Ukraine where Russia and Ukraine Happ been in Conflict uh for about three years now and a lot of people have died um there's controversy over the exact number but um it's possible that over a million soldiers have died in this war so far and even though president Donald Trump the United States has shown signs that he wants to end the war we don't really know when the war will end okay so this war in in Ukraine it is still happening and it's affecting everything and everyone because um obviously brings a lot of in instability and uncertain uncertainty in the world it's also driving up prices and it's making things inconvenient so when you fly United States you'll discover that it takes you longer to fly the United States because you can't fly through Russia you have to fly around Russia okay so that's the first major conflict the second conflict um which is not as deadly but but which will probably prove to be even more dangerous is the war in the Middle East the conflict in the Middle East um as you know um for the past couple years Israel has been in conflict with basically most of its neighbors it's launched an expedition into the Gaza Strip against Hamas for what Hamas did on October 7th um it's launched War a war against Lebanon it's involved in Syria and the signs tell us that this conflict will spread Trump has come in and promise um a resolution to the conflict but as I will show you the semester there are historical structural forces that make this conflict possibly the beginning of World War II this conflict will only increase the great fear right now is Israel attacks Iran and drives United States into war with Iran and this will Mark the beginning of World War II and this could possibly lead to the end of the world as we know it today if the United States attacks Iran both Russia and China must intervene in some capacity does that make sense to you guys Iran right now it's the Lynch pin of the global economy the first reason is there's a lot of oil in Iran in the Middle East and China South Korea and Japan get most of its oil from the Middle East right so if you if the oil supply is cut off then the Chinese economy the South Korean economy the Japanese economy basically all East Asia faces economic collapse and catastrophe okay but second is if you look at a map Iran is really the center of the world meaning most of the World's Trade goes through that area especially something called the straight of hus Iran has a capacity uh to cut off all trade in the shade of hus and that would be catastrophe for the global economy and if that would have happen then the Western Powers would need to get involved in order to free up the sh ofus and then Russia India China who knows okay but a lot of people would have have to get involved in order to protect their economic interests all right so um I will go the sem I will go into the semester we'll talk a lot about what's driving conf in the Middle East there are these geopolitical factors as I as I discussed but there are Al also these religious factors that we looked into a bit um last semester but I will explain more this semester okay and then the third and final Conflict um is basically the United States against the world what I mean by that is that um ever since the collapse of the Soviet Union the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1991 we have been living in something called a unipolar moment meaning there's only one hedge one superpower and as such the United States has been able to dictate policy especially Economic Policy around the world United States controls all trade we have to use the US dollar in order to trade the United States also uses its military to protect shipping lanes and this is Crim called the Pax Americana the American peace and this of course has brought tremendous prosperity to the world okay China would not have grown as fast as China did without the PX Americana it is American ships American warships that allow Chinese ships to sail safely around the world to deliver Goods around the world but this unipolar movement has also created a lot of conflict the main conflict being the United States can invol can evade any country for no reason 2003 it invaded Iraq for no reason it destroyed Libya for no reason it almost destroyed Syria for no reason okay so the number of countries United States has gone and destroyed are just staggering so and that's why Russia under Putin because it felt being it felt bullied uh it felt disrespected that's why Russia is now in conflict with the United States and strangely enough this conflict has caused United States to go into conflict with the rest of the world okay so as you may know United States right now under Trump has declared or is about to launch trade Wars against a lot of countries Canada Mexico quite possibly very quickly the the European Union and United States is already at economic war with Russia and China okay so we will go in this we will also discuss this this semester why this is happening again my argument to you is that if you know enough history if you study the historical structural forces that drive um global conflict then you'll understand what's going on and you'll also be able to predict what will happen okay does that make sense okay so um what I want to talk today is about a new model of of historical analysis how can we understand the movement of History why do people do what they do why do Nations go to war why do Nations have peace okay so I'm looking at Grand history I'm looking at the uh large structural movement of history and in the past there have been two main models for understanding historical development okay so the first is the idea of a cycle or a circle and this makes sense right because this mirrors what we experience in life when we we are born but then we die and then other people are born and then they die okay so it's a cycle you look at the seasons there's um winter but I gives rise to Spring which then gives rise to Summer then the fall then winter again it's a cycle okay so for most of human history most people have understood the movement of the world as a cycle this is certainly true in Chinese history right um dynasties rise because because they have the med of heaven heaven favors some and they do justice when they first arise but over time for for a variety of reasons because of corruption because it's a there's a bad Emperor they lose Mandate of Heaven which allows a rebellion which then creates a new Dynasty so a so Chinese history is almost a continuous cycle of dynastic rise and decline okay now in the in the western context there's also a cycle there are many different Cycles but let me explain one cycle that we've notice in the Greek and Roman world the cycle is this there are three major factions in a society there is the people there is nobility and then there is the king or a great person okay and each of these factions have a particular Str strength the people their strength comes from their numbers right they have mass the nobility um it's only minority of people but they have authority they are respected because they know uh more they have they are better at War than ordinary people but they have authority okay people respect them and the King has the army okay so these are the three major forces or factions in a society and these three factions are always in conflict and what happens is a changing Alliance where the two of the three we get together to beat one okay and then this forces a new alliance right so what happens is this you first have something call A Anarchy where the nobility is in charge and everyone has to do what they do what what they command okay but over time this arery becomes corrupt and the way and the the way they become corrupt is by exploiting the people through debt all right so in a nobility the Nobles own the land you have to work the land but you get a share and that's fine but sometimes the weather is bad so you can't work the land you can't pay me the rent so I give you a loan and over time this loan becomes a debt and at at a certain point you can't pay off the debt so what happens you become my slave and your children become my my slave as well okay so this creates a lot of conflict in society how is this conflict resolved because one of nobility wants to be king and he and he sees an opportunity in the Civil conflict between the people and noil nobility okay so he people if you make me king I will clear your debts and this creates a monarchy and the first king is usually a good King because he had to work hard to obtain his position and um people love him for the fact that he cleared away their debts this this is what we call it Jubilee by the way the word is Jubilee and this happens a lot in human history but the problem is the King has a son who's not so good and then the son has a son who's awful okay and so nobility get angry the people get angry and they Rebel and they create a democracy okay but then in the Democracy because what happens in the democrac Y is it's the best people or the best speakers the wealthiest people who control the votes and so they get together and what do they do they and what do they do they create an Archy okay you see how how the CLE works and the C goes on and on and on these um three factions always on conflict with each other and their and and the way they form their alliances creates a certain form of government okay when the nobility in charge is anarchy when but then a king and the people work together to overr and create a monarchy and then they uh and the King becomes corrupt and so the nobility and the people work together cre a democracy okay and you can see the cycle happening today United States as well right because who is Trump trump is a king does that make sense you guys what is what what is Trump saying Trump is saying to the people the elite are corrupt the elite are stealing from you the elite are lying to you vote for me and I will destroy the elite and I will give you more economic opportunities okay do you understand so this is a really important idea Trump is not going to be president for four years his ambition is to be king okay and we see the cycle throughout human history so that's the idea of a cycle right we also have another model of human history devel of human historical development which is a line okay a line and the idea of progress towards truth okay so that's the other competing model okay there are two main models there's a cycle and then there's a line and the idea of the line is Human Society does not go on and on in a useless cycle it is moving towards a truth is moving towards a good end okay so then this idea has been around for a very long time remember in the Bible the when um King David first sponsored the the Bible the Bible was a line where Yahweh the God he was looking for a friend he was looking for someone who he could trust to rule his kingdom of heaven and he first tried Adam and Eve and they disobeyed him then he tried Noah then he tried Abraham and then he tried Moses and then he found his true friend who is David okay so the the truth is David in the Hebrew Bible then you have the Romans okay remember the Romans Virgil wase something called the inad and in the inad um Troy was destroyed so that Rome could be founded and when Rome was founded Rome will have to fight the series of wars that will eventually lead to the rise of Augustus Caesar and this will create something called the Pax Romana and this is the end of History this is where all movement ends because once you achieve the PX Romana there'll be no more war okay so it's idea of a lie obviously this is not true but back then when they came up with this history they thought it was true and um if you know a little bit about current history then you'll know about a man named Francis fukayama who is an American who works for the government and he wrote something called the end of History which is an essay arguing um that when the Soviet Union fell it showed the end of History before history was a battle ideas communism capitalism and now with the father Soviet Union we now know that Western liberal consumer democra Ry is the best system in the world we no longer have to argue about this everyone should try to be a liberal consumer democracy including China and if everyone became a consumer liberal democracy there will be no more war we would want to fight because we're too busy spending money and the best way they make money is through trade not war okay we all we now also know this is not true all right but the main um proponents of the line theere of History progress of History are actually Christians okay Christians why because they believe that Jesus marks a turning point in history and and at the and when Jesus came it marked a progress towards truth what is truth truth is the second coming of Jesus which will Mark the end of the world when Jesus returns he will he will usher in a millennium a thousand years of Peace when he will be king we will all have to obey him okay what I will show you in the future when we discuss Crusades the Crusades um is that this idea okay it sounds like a simple idea but this idea is what driving a lot of the conflict in the Middle East believe it or not but there are millions of Christians they're call Christian zionists by the way who want war in the Middle East because if there's war in the Middle East and the world is about to end Jesus has to return from Heaven to save us okay you think this is silly you think this is crazy but I'm telling you right now this idea which millions of people around the world believe in it's one of the main causes of the war in the Middle East and guys crazy ideas make crazy events all right so there are people who literally believe that we can save the world by ending it it's only a threat of nuclear Holocaust it's it's only the threat of the end of Israel that will force Jesus to return issuing the second coming all right now what's important for us to understand is that these are the two basic Frameworks of history but there are variations to these two basic models okay so for example Hegel okay we'll discuss feder Hegel later on in the semester he's he's really important but he has this idea called the dialectic the dialectic dialectic just means a conflict a conversation so what he believes is that history is driven by ideas that are conflict with each other okay wherever there's an idea for example let's say you have capitalism then what will happen is a new idea will arise to ch challenge the existing idea we'll call communism okay and then what will happen is these two ideas will merge together and they will draw on the best parts of each other and we can call this socialism all right so it's a line okay but it's it's it's like this almost right there's a IDE there's there's an idea something comes in conflict and it and this leads to a new idea which then leads to a new idea okay but he still believes that we are progressing towards the truth through this conflict all right so we'll discuss Hegel and his theory of the dialectic um later on the semester and this will lead and this the idea of the dialectic will lead to of course Marxism okay so Marx is drawing a lot on hego and another philosopher named um Emanuel Kant for his theory of Communism but we'll do that in later on in a semester all right so these are the two main models of historical development you have the cycle the his Circle or the line you either believe that things move in continuous motion or they're moving towards an end okay does that make sense any questions about these two models so far okay so what you will learn this semester is a new model of historical development okay it's a much more complicated model than these two models but I think it is much more useful in helping us predict the causes of um historical development okay um I want to argue why these two models don't really work and it has to do with the fact that history as an e economic discipline is just not very good it's is not what I mean by that is you look at the world today there's this Trump presidency there's this conflict in the Ukraine there's the Middle East conflict and you would expect historians to come out and say oh this has happened before and we can then predict what will happen and so this is what's going to happen Okay but guess what guys they're not doing that also they're not very good at predicting things they're just not his history has is notorious for not being able for not being able to tell us much about the future and they St say well it's because we look at the past and for me this is frustrating because if the history is any good if the history is accurate then it should help us predict the future or or at least better understand the present okay so the idea of Truth what is truth well truth does two things first explains why did this happen why did World War II start and the answer we have today is like Hitler was a bad guy he was evil okay that doesn't explain much for us and then it also has to predict it predicts if it's truthful then it predicts and his she doesn't do that so I want to fix this problem by introducing a new model of History which is a lot more complicated okay I'll be honest with you it's a lot more complicated but I think for our purposes it's more useful at explaining why things happen the way they do and it's helps us also predict what happen okay and this model is what I call the oceanic curve of History imagine the world as a huge ocean and within each ocean there's an ecosystem which has currents and then these currents come into conflict with each other which leads to a new development okay so think about hurricanes and the thing that's really important about this model that I'm proposing is there's no moral judgment in it okay I mean obviously in the line the end where we're going is good and where we're at now is bad but what I'm saying is this moral judgment saying this is good this is bad it's not helpful doesn't really tell us anything all right okay I'm much more interested in explaining why this happened how this happened and where this is going okay so let's look at the world to understand this Theory what I want what I want show you is the world is divided into cultural ecosystems okay cultural ecosystems this is a really important idea you you need to know for the rest of semester what I will argue is that culture is the meta reality meta reality so what's meta reality meta reality is the understanding the world from which all other understandings derive so what I'm saying is that culture is the most important part of who you are much more important than your gender much more important than your race your ethnicity much more important than your economic demographic okay you're rich you're poor okay so to understand this idea why culture so important I will do a thought experiment okay a thought experiment the thought experiment is this let's take a random guy from China 2,000 years ago okay just a random guy we take him off the streets and we'll put him into China today all right now in 2000 years China has changed a lot right we now have the internet we have computers we have cell phones we have skyscrapers we have cars we have roads okay so China has changed a lot in these 2,000 years how long would it take him for him to adapt to the New China and might and I would say I would say most 5 to 10 years because even though on the surface China has changed a lot deep down inside China's culture has stayed consistent for the past 3 to 4 thousand years so he he would understand how to make friends he would understand if you were to get a job how to uh associate with his boss and his colleagues if he would get to get to if we would get married he would know how to raise his children to have them succeed in China okay does that make sense to you guys it would take him time to learn how to use a cell phone and how to use a computer and how to drive a car but he can do so does that make sense now let's do another experiment let's take a random guy from China today and put him in Germany today Germany okay what I will argue is this he will never ever be able to adapt to the the culture he may get a job as a pizza delivery man who knows okay but he will never ever make friends who are German he won't find a German wife whatever job he does he won't know how to succeed he won't know what to say to his boss he won't know how to associate with his boss okay does that make sense this is a guy who knows the internet who knows how to drive a car who can who can speak English but because of the culture he's always a stranger does that make sense this thought experiment I hope shows you the Persistence of culture it's the most important part of who you are it drives everything else it drives how you see the world it drives how you interact with others okay so what matters is culture and nothing else and what I'm what what I want to show you is the semester is the world can be divided into cultural ecosystems because of the history because of the geography because of the demographics okay does that make sense so look Europe is a cultural ecosystem all right meaning someone from Germany can go to Italy and still feel at home they still they don't speak the same language the geography is different but they share the same cultural orientation the same cultural values all right someone who who lives in the Middle East okay well some some call um the Levant Israel and other places okay but basically the Middle East that's also another cultural ecosystem then you have um uh the steps so remember the steps are this grassland this oce of grassland that basically extends from Hungary to Mongolia okay and then you have um China India okay so there different these there these different ecosystems cultural e systems that are determined by their geography their history and their demographics and cultures response to geography history and demographics okay does that make sense all right now what I will show you is that within each ecosystem they're always interacting with each other okay they're always interacting with each other and when they change they change their interaction with each other all right so let's ask a really important question which is why do Empires why do they fall why do they climb why do they fail and this is a really important question how was it possible for the Roman Empire to collapse how were the Greeks able to defeat the Persian Empire how were the Mongolians the monus able to C the Chinese Empire all right and what I will show you the semester is when this happens when Empire is conquered the pattern is the same there's a consistent pattern in this all right so let me explain the pattern and then for the semester we'll go into specific instances of this pattern to explore the um specifics okay does that make sense all right so what happens is this why Empires fall is there's usually an Empire okay let's just say R and as they expand they encounter some called the Borderlands okay Borderlands Borderlands are just places that are um the intersections of Empires okay so Mongolia is the Borderland of the Chinese Empire right Arabia is the Borderland of the bantine and assassin Persian Empires okay and the Borderlands and the Empire become at first simp iotic okay meaning they depend on each other they they work with each other okay in three ways the first and the first most simple way that they interact is through trade okay they trade with each other second way they interact is through um military corporation so what often happens is the Empire needs Mercenaries and it turns out that people who live in the Borderlands make very good soldiers okay because they live in a time of war and Chaos in the Borderlands there's no Central Authority so they're always fighting each other so they make very good soldiers and then the third way theya to each other is some people in the Borderlands will raid and pillage the Empire the outskirts of the empire for resources okay so they are interacting with each other so the pattern is this the Borderlands first start off as as may an isolated region of the world so Arabia uh the steps uh and the dramatic North okay what we call Scandinavia today okay the the the north the northmen so these are all isolated Parts but as the Empire expands they start to interact with the these isolated ecosystems and when they act we and when they interact what happens is these Borderlands become energized okay they it's like the Empire is adding fuel to the Borderlands by giving them more wealth by giving them more knowledge by giving them more access to information okay does that make sense and over time what happens is because of this new energy The Bard lands become much more populated much more wealthy much more knowledgeable and then it creates internal conflicts within their Borderlands and the only way for them to to to resolve this conflict is to expand okay they have to expand now and in the process of expand of expansion what happens is now and then they will conquer the Empire all right that's a pattern the Borderlands are first these isolated regions that no one knows much about they're like the stuff of Legend and myth when the Empire expands it energizes this these Borderlands the energy makes these Borderlands more wealthy more populated and more militar sophisticated that's creates conflicts within the Borderlands too many people so what are they forced to do they forced to expand and dur the course of this expansion they come in conflict with the Empire and now and then they will conquer the Empire become the new Empire that's a pattern and it happens all over human history okay this this is how the Mongolians conquer China this is how the M conquer China before the Mongolians and mares conquer China there was trade uh Chinese the Chinese Empire was using them as mercenaries okay there was also a lot of small conflict does that make sense all right so now that I explain the pattern the question then is why would this happen why would this happen how is it possible for the Borderlands which again is only a fraction of the wealth the population and the resource of the Empire how are they able to conquer the Empire and this is a really important lesson you will learn in this class which is Empires are destined to collapse Empires must collapse all right so why is that the case in this class you will learn there are three boundary conditions of all societies eventually all societies must collapse for three reasons all right the first reason is Elite over production second reason is rat Utopia and the third reason is um uh financialising the first when a society first starts it's important for people to contribute to its growth right I can do that by starting a farm when when I build a farm I make Goods I'm creating W for the society right you can also do that by building a factory but over time what happens is you eventually realize that it's more profitable for you to lend money than to build things does that make sense it's is much profitable much easier for you to um be a capitalist than is to be an entrepreneur over time so there's this very famous French Economist his name is tominus py and he wrote a book called um capital in 21st century it's a very good book um it's very easy to read and it's one of the most discussed books right now and he makes the argument he makes the argument why inequality happens inequality in society happens because of the nature of capital okay the nature of money what money does is it seeks to grow for the sake of growing and what's the best way for Capital to grow by consolidating and and charging rents okay does that make sense so the example is okay there are five restaurants in Beijing they obvious trying to compete against each other for the for customers right so so they lower prices and try to get better food but eventually at some point they figure out hey we're five restaurants man we can just get together and negotiate a cartel a deal where we charge all the all high prices right then we make more money that way that's something we call Rent sinking Behavior rent sinking the idea of rent sinking is to create a monopoly which forces people to buy whatever prices you charge them okay that's the ultimate goal of of Industry or Society or business okay to engage in rcking behavior and over time because Capital consolidates it's much more profitable to engage in capitalism than is to engage in entrepreneurship okay meaning you're better off actually investing in the stock market than you are in getting a job in fact what he shows is the return on financial capitalism is 5% a year okay on average if you put $100 in the start Market you make $5 all right but the return on the real economy is only 2% meaning if you start a factory and you hire people or you start a restaurant which can which make which contributes real growth real wealthy economy you only make 2% all right and that's why if you go to America and you will go to America eventually you'll find that young people your age they're not working what are they doing they're investing in Bitcoin they're playing the stock the real estate market they're investing in stocks do you understand because it's you make more money doing that then you do by doing real work by creating a company you understand in other words your Society isn't producing any value and as a result your economy can't move on right does that make sense and when you're in this situation what are you forced to do now if you're if you're society and you want to continue what are you forced to do EXC me open what do you do historically what what what have's done in order to get out of this situation where financialised your Society make war guys you understand because you make war you destroy things you destroy things you are forced to rebuild things it doesn't make sense that's why we have War because War means a game reset it allows societ to rebuild itself okay so that's the first idea I want you guys to understand over time this the economy matures to a point where Evan becomes a r renter okay or sorry a rente you're trying to be a landlord and you're trying to charge people to use your land you don't want to work this this is true throughout the world right in China it's the same thing throughout Chinese history now in the west it's the same thing as well okay and at that point you have no choice but to start a war to reset your Society or your Society will continue to decline okay so the first boundary condition white societies Must Die second bound boundary condition is the idea of rat Utopia okay so we discussed this a bit last semester I want to refresh your memory rutopia is an experiment that's been done many times but the idea is this what happens to rats in a perfect world normally rats have an extremely ritual ritualized Society so for example if you want to mate okay what male rats do is they go on top of a mound where all the female rats can see them right and the Rats the male Rats start to dance okay they did dance really like um in a very strange way but that attracts the attention of the female the the male rat sees attention to the female rat and the male rat starts to chase the female rat the female rat runs back into her burrow her home and hides the male rat has to stand outside and wait for the female rat to come out when she comes out she will start running again and he will start chasing uh her and then she'll run back into her Furrow again they do this multiple times until eventually the female rat lets him catch her and then they will have sex and they'll be married and have children okay so that's rat society and it's no different from Human Society right you like a girl or you a or a boy you guys go out for a coffee date then a lunch date and a dinner date then eventually after a couple years you might have sex and get married and have children okay no different it's a very heavily ritualized Society what experimenters did was they asked themselves what would happen if we made a perfect world where no one had to fight for food every day food would come down from the heavens and all the rats could do whatever they want they would have complete Freedom this what we call ratopia it turned out all sidey collapsed it was a complete disaster the male Rats start to rape female rats there's no more like playing around there's no more ritual it was all just rape and murder it was a complete breakdown of society why did this happen okay there are many different theories but one thing that you need to understand about rats and humans is we all like status status okay the idea is this we humans we're all standing in line to go on onto a mountain top okay the mountain top everyone respects you you make a lot of money you feel good about yourself and we're all sing in line and this line takes a long time but eventually you will get to the mountain top this is how this game works is people in the M top have to fall off and die in order for other people to CL up okay does that make sense but what happens when the people the M top don't die well you're just stuck in line when you're stuck in line I'm not sure if you've been stuck in line for like hours and hours but you get angry right you get frustrated so what do you do well you hit someone behind you and then that person gets angry and hits back hits you back okay eventually that this line everyone's fighting each other and people at the mountain on top are enjoying each other are enjoying the view they have status and then they're never going to die they're never going to fall off and this is our society today guys okay the people in power in in China in the United States around the world have been there for a long long time and they're not dying so what are young people doing tongue ping by line right quite quitting lying flat because you don't see any opportunities what you want is not money what you want is status and that we that we requires you to achieve a certain level in society but those positions are being occupied by people who refuse to die and as a result Society collapses young people refuse to work they refuse to get married and have children so your dies you understand so rat Utopia is the second boundary condition does that make sense guys you're seeing this around the world today all right ask yourselves why is it that you yourself are not motivated the answer is you really don't see an opportunity to climb to the top and enjoy status you just don't because people aren't dying they just not and why because we've achieved a certain level of abundance and wealth that allows people to keep on living okay does that make sense any any questions before I continue are you guys clear about this and the third boundary condition is the idea of elite overproduction what is Elite overproduction well it's the same as radiotopia but radiotopia is a conflict between the Hales and half knots Elite over production is a conflict with among the halves okay the very wealthy because even though there's certain number a limited number of status position too many Elite people are being produced okay so it's not only that the um children of poor people are being screwed over in the system it's the children of the elite are being screwed over in the system and this creates conflict in the system because the poor can't do anything they can just fight each other in line but the elite can do something they can go war against each other they can monopol they can start uh killing each other okay this creates Civil War in fact if you are to look at America today you can say there's a civil war going on between two different factions of the elite okay does that make sense and this is what drives a lot of history where a lot of revolutions happen not because the poor are trying to overthrow the rich it's because the lower nobility is fighting for opportunities against the upper nobility does that make sense guys okay we're seeing this again today in China and also in the United States all right so these are the three main boundary conditions so now let's apply to these three boundary conditions and ask ourselves why Empire is collaps well the first reason is because most people in the Empire don't want to live there they're just stuck living there why do most people don't want to live there because they are in debt okay debt and landlessness throughout most of human history Empires that have persisted for the longest have this huge problem where the majority of the population suffers from too much debt and suffers from too much landlessness no opportunities okay then what happens is the elite starts fighting amongst themselves there's corruption why is there corruption because the elite are struggling to engage in R seeking Behavior amongst themselves okay they're trying to steal more they're stealing more and more so there's corruption there's civil conflict and there's corruption so it's only a matter of time before the Empire collapses but during this time what does the Empire do okay it's really strange and funny but what they do is this they import the people from the Borderlands in order to try to resolve their civil conflicts they does that make sense you can't trust the Army anymore because the Army is made up of people who have too much debt and who are landless so what do you do you hire for Mercenaries right that's what China does or or that's what China did in its history you can't trust your own Army so you hire foreign mercenaries and eventually what happens is you replace your army with four Mercenaries and then eventually what happens the foreign mercenaries take over your Empire that's what happened in Rome that's what happened uh throughout human history okay okay so now that we've discussed the Empire I want to look at the Borderlands why is it true that the Borderlands are able to conquer the Empire and my argument to you is cultural it sorry culture it's cultural all right so we have this Prejudice or misunderstanding about civilization all right civilization civilization is about cities it's about writing it's about technology it's about wealth and if you look looked at it that way then you don't really understand why is it these Borderlands the Mongolians among Jews the Vikings the Arabians the Greeks why are they able to conquer these Empires that makes no sense to you so what what I'm trying to say you what what I'm trying to tell you is this is a wrong way of looking at it a better way of looking at is culture in the Borderlands there's a certain culture that develops because it's a Borderland it's a it's a culture that focuses on freedom egalitarianism and self-reliance Independence this is true throughout the Borderland okay if you if we were to go back to the Mongolia during the time of gangas Khan if we were if we were to go back to the the European north of the time of Vikings these are cultures that emphasize freedom egalitarianism and self-reliance and as such these were amazing Warriors okay so let's let's look at example let's look at the um Vikings okay the Vikings didn't know how to read or write they didn't have any mathematics they didn't have cities but from age two or three their kids were learning how to swim how to roll boats how to cook how to hunt how to fight how to ride horses does that make sense and what what are civilized kids doing they're learning how to do test questions right in a war who's going to win well obviously these guys okay does that make sense so these are the this is the idea of the O Oceanic currents okay you have these isolated areas that are ecosystems amongst themselves as the Empire expands okay just think of it as a current the emperial Curr current it's expanding expanding that's what Empires do it energizes these areas and these areas actually have much more energetic potential than the Empire which is dying okay and this energy forces so much energy in this Borderlands that they are now become like a hurricane and they have to ride through history some they're defeated but sometimes like the Greeks like the Vikings like the Mongolians like the Arabians they win and when they win they create a lot of Destruction okay and that's the idea I want implanted in your head these are currents these are natural forces that are unstoppable once they start you cannot stop them okay this war in Ukraine it is a hurricane that will engulf all of Europe this war in the Middle East is a hurricane that will engulf the entire world once this starts you can't have a conference and decide to end it it these things cannot end until they reach your natural course okay the hurricane stops when it runs out of energy does that make sense the hurricane does not negotiate with you and said oh well um you make a very good case for why I shouldn't destroy you so I'll just stop hurricanes don't do that these are natural forces right and this is what I will show you this semester and I I will also show you how this connects to current events and then once we do that we should be able to predict current events and just let you know spoiler alert things will not end well okay okay we are looking at the complete under destruction of the world we live in today nothing will be the same because these are Oceanic currents they destroy against path once you unleash them they must destroy it's only a question of how much right all right was this clear to you guys any questions anything you want anything you want me to clarify or elaborate again I know this is a big Theory but we will be doing a lot of examples throughout the course of the semester all right and this will give you a unified theory of history and you'll see how everything everything connects together right any questions oh that's a good question okay what starts these hurricanes or what starts this process all right so if you look at an ocean you will discover that these currents are happening all the time you understand there there's no start they're always in motion all right so once you start an Empire you're starting already to unleash a hurricane in the Borderlands once the hurricane matures in the Borderlands it will overwhel an Empire which will then start to energize a new Borderland does that make sense so that's a that's that's a really good question uh and unfortunately the um the answer is there will always be hurricanes hurricanes are always forming you just have to figure out where they're forming in order to predict where where they're coming from okay but obviously the two big hurricanes right now are what's happening um in Ukraine and what's happening in Israel in the Middle East okay but um other her are are coming okay uh for example there will eventually be a conflict in East Asia all right now A lot of people are saying the conflict will be between um China United States I do not think that's the case I do not think um the conflict will be between United States and China I think it will involve Japan and South Korea all right it will not be over the Taiwan straight it will be between it will involve South Korea and Japan how so I don't really know okay another conflict is what's happened in America America um is itself a hurricane eventually America will have to fight a Civil War and when you go to America you will see how divided the country is all right and people are already predicting a civil war it's the only question of when I think things will speed up in 2028 the reason why is um the election in 2028 will be heavily contested people are going to argue over who won and it'll be very clear who won in 2028 and there's a very good chance Trump will run again in 2028 okay but I but I think these are two big Hans that are coming along the way not now but they're coming along the way um the the big scary hurricane of course is Iran okay eventually United States and Iran will come in conf with each in will come in conflict with with each other okay and this will drag in the entire world right does does that make sense to you Eva okay thanks for the question okay any more questions [Music] until it overwhelms the Empire that that's a great question okay all right so we have to figure out what is driving the hurricane and the answer is the internal conflicts within the Borderlands does that make sense so there's just too many people and there's just not enough status positions so they go on and they conquer their own territory right so you look at the Vikings okay the Vikings the Vikings are interesting the Vikings which we'll discuss a lot they're in northern Europe and for most of human history we had actually no idea they were there okay they were in the North in Denmark in Norway in Sweden and they basically kept themselves they still traded the world but we didn't really know know much about them okay and then they started to come out of nowhere and they did three things they went over to colonize Greenland and Iceland all right and they also went to actually North America so they were actually the first Europeans to reach North America so one Str sh that they had was to expand and explore and colonize okay but then you also had a group of Vikings northmen who went to attack France and they were so such a huge problem that the French decided to give them their own land called Normandy okay Normandy the land of the north people Normandy all right and then they went over here to Ukraine uh along the uh River because they were trading with the Islamic empire and they found it colonies or new new settlements and this was a peaceful process okay because they were trying to establish Trading Post and this became the basis of which country you guys know Russia okay you see people will call the Roose I actually don't know what Roose means but it just means Rose and that's where Russia comes from so this beginning of a new country called Russia all right and Normandy is interesting because they eventually went off to conquer a new country called you guys know who they conquered who who who do the Normans conquer 1066 guys England Britain all right he that so the herin stops when the people just run out energy because they've reached the point where they can't go on okay the hurrian create is created because they have wealth power but they don't have enough status positions so they have to expand to fill the status positions okay this is this is actually what drives Empire Building does that make sense it's not because you lack resources it's because you have too many people who want status and you can't fill fill them you can't let leave them in your Society because then they will overthrow you so you send them somewhere else okay all right good is that clear eeko great any more questions great okay so uh I I hope this was clear we will continue discussing this throughout the throughout the semester because this becomes the framework for which we understand all of European history for the past 2,000 years okay so next class we will do the Roman Empire the fall and decline of the Roman Empire which will lead us into the rise system called the Holy Roman Empire which is not the Roman Empire okay it's basically the French Empire okay or the um Frankish Empire and the Frank Empire will lead to the rise of the Vikings all right all right so those are next three classes all right great