Geo-Strategy Update #2: WWIII Begins, Let's Game Theory

Hi YouTube. Good morning from uh Toronto on a very muggy day. As you know, last night Trump ordered the bombing of three Iranian um nuclear facilities and this will mark the beginning of World War II. So I have both good news and bad news. Uh the bad news is we are now approaching the end of the world.

The good news is this morning I will tell you how the world will end. So um I'm going to look ahead and ask the most pivotal question of this coming war which is will the United States use ground troops? And as we discussed many times before in previous videos if the United States were to use ground troops then they would lose this war. it would mark the end of the American Empire and it would probably ignite the Second American Civil War. Um, and I think most people would be in agreement that using ground troops would be a disaster for the United States and the United States should avoid uh using ground forces uh to the best of its ability.

That said, I'm going to use game theory to explain to you why they will still use ground troops against Iran even though um it's a really really bad idea. In fact, it it is a it would be a catastrophe. Okay, so let's do some game theory analysis. In game theory, we look at the in we look at the different players here be Iran, Israel, the United States and we ask three questions. The first question is how do they themselves perceive the game?

What game are they playing? How do they see themselves? Um how do they see their roles in this game? That's the first big question. Second big question is what are their interests?

What are their motivations? What are they trying to accomplish? What are their goals? The third big question then is given their role and given um their interest, what is their optimal strategy in trying to achieve their goals. Okay.

So given these three questions, we're going to look at um how Iran, Israel, United States will play this game um in this war. Okay. So Iran's probably easiest to do so Iran. Iran perceives this war um as the opportunity to achieve really important national strategic goals. The first is to create national unity and to further legitimize the authority of the regime.

Um as you know because of of sanctions and because of mismanagement because of corruption this regime in Iran is not very popular. But if the Americans are coming to invade and overthrow the regime and sow chaos and destruction, then the people are going to solidly unite behind the government, no matter what government it is. Um, also, uh, the Iranians see this as the best opportunity in a long time to finally destroy the American presence in the Middle East by forcing the Americans into a quagmire that that they cannot extricate themselves from. As we discussed many times, supply issues in Iran will be a huge problem for the American military. they they can get in, but it's be very hard for them to get out.

Um, and the third strategic national interest is to um create global legit legitimacy by defeating the Americans, right? uh the Shia regime is trying to be the leaders of the global Muslim movement and if they were to defeat the Americans in Iran then they would be become the de facto leaders of all Muslims in the world surpassing Saudi Arabia. So those are the three major national strategic interests of Iran. And now the question then is how would Iran force Americans to invade? What is the optimal strategy in this regard?

Because remember the the Iranians um they're not going to be able to beat the Americans in a conventional war. They don't have the technology. They don't have the weapons. They don't have the financing that the Americans do. So, they're going to have to trap the Americans in um uh Iran, encircle them, and cut off their supply lines and force a negotiated surrender.

Okay, that's that's the optimal strategy of the Iranians. So why would the Americans be lured into attacking Iran on Iran's terms? Well, um there's a concept in geopolitics, in political science, called the escalation ladder. Um the idea of the escalation ladder is that before uh a full-blown war can start, there has to be a certain process of escalation. And in this theory, the Americans have something called escalation dominance, which means that um the Americans can always choose use nuclear weapons uh if they choose if they feel they are losing this war.

They are the hegeimon. They are the global hegeimon and the Iranians are the underdog. So in theory, what they teach you in polic science is that the hegeimon has advantage of escalation dominance. What I want to show you today is actually um this theory doesn't really work because exclusion dominance what it does is it forces you into reactions that may be that may be against your best interest. So let me use a metaphor.

Let's just say there's a bully in a high school and he's been bullying people for a year now and he's the biggest guy in the school. He's really mean and everyone's afraid of him. He has a reputation for being a thug and that's why he's able to accomplish what he wants to accomplish. Now, let's just say that you you're, you know, half his size. You want to start a fight with him.

Well, um you would think that that would be against your advantage. But one advantage that you have um in this fight is you can control the terms of engagement. you can uh calibrate your actions to in order to elicit responses that are to the detriment of the bully. Okay. So, what I mean by that is if um the bully punches you, well, you have options.

You can choose to go to the principal, you can choose to not do anything or you can choose to fight back. Okay? You have some options. But if you were to punch the bully, the bully would have actually no choice but to punch you back. If he relents, if he compromises, then he loses all credibility in the school.

So, he has absolutely no choice in the matter but to punch you back and punch you back harder than you uh punched him. Um, and what this means is there are ways for you to calibrate your attack so that the bully is trapped. Okay? So, for example, you might say some bad things about him behind um uh his back, then he responds. And anyway, the point of the matter is even though the bully has the is supposed to be the uh stronger player, um he's forced by his reputation to respond in a certain way that you can control and calibrate.

Same situation here um with Iran versus United States. The United States is a global hedgeimon. If if Iran were to close off the street of Humus, if it were to attack Saudi Arabia, if it were to attack American bases in uh the Middle East, then the Americans must respond in a way that that demonstrates escalation dominance. Okay? And so by slowly and methodically and steadily provoking the Americans in a way that um seems fair and reasonable, then Iran can slowly force the Americans into evading uh Iran.

Okay? It's a it's going be a gradual process, but the Iranians can do this. Remember, it's the Americans who first launched the first strike against the Iranians. And so the Iranians can now calibrate response in order to slowly trap the Americans in the Middle East. Okay.

So um from Iranian perspective, the optimal strategy is to force Americans to uh use ground troops to invade Iran. Uh, and they can accomplish that by carefully calibrating responses in a way that forces the Americans to respond more harshly until finally the only the only option really is to use ground troops. Okay, that's the Iranian case study. Now, let's look at the Israelis. Okay, the Israelis and the Americans seem to be allies in this war.

But the reality is the Americans and the Israelis have divergent interests. America is the global hegeimon. Therefore, it wants to be able to balance uh forces in the Middle East. Um yes, it supports Israel right now, but if Israel were to become too powerful over time, then the Americans would start to back Saudi Arabia, Turkey, um Egypt. Okay?

The Americans must maintain bounds of power in the Middle East. The Israelis on the other hand want to be the dominant hegeimon in the Middle East. There's something called the greater Israel project um that uh among certain circles in Israel is an extremely influential um idea. Okay. And the idea is very simple.

They believe that in the Bible, Yahweh, their God, um gave the promised land to uh Abraham. That's a covenant. The promised land though is is extends from the Nile to the Euphrates. That entire basically the entire Middle East is supposed is supposed to be what um Yahweh promised Abraham. And there's a fanatical faction within the Israeli government that seeks to accomplish the uh promised land.

And of course um if that were the case then the main adversaries to this project would not be the Iranians or the Saudis. It would actually be the Americans. Okay? Because um to accomplish the uh Israel the greater Israel project then then Israel needs to remove America from the Middle East. So, how can Israel do this?

Well, let's just say um just hypothetically speaking, um the Americans were to invade Iran with ground troops and they're stuck there for years and years and they get nowhere. Um now the American Empire collapses. The American people revolt against the uh invasion of Iran. They refuse to serve. Um they burn uh their draft cards as they did in Vietnam.

There's civil chaos. There's there's there's an emerging civil war in uh America. And now the the American military is forced to retreat from the Middle East. What would happen in that situation? Well, the moment that the American Empire dies, the empire of Israel is born.

Why? Because controlling the Middle East, the American military controlling the Middle East is called Sencom, Central Command. They have bases, they have weapons, they have soldiers. If the American nation were to retreat from the Middle East, it does not mean the American military goes away. All it means is the American military will now become absorbed into the nation state of Israel, making Israel the de facto um hegeimon of the Middle East.

Okay, that's the long-term play of Israel. It does Israel absolutely no good to defeat Iran. They need to both defeat Iran and America. The best way to do that is to entangle both into war that will destroy the militaries of of both nations. Okay, that's the optimal strategy for Israel.

And that requires the Israelis to persuade the Americans to use ground troops to invade Iraq. Okay, that's the Israel um case study. Now, let's look at America. Obviously, America does not want to use ground troops uh because the moment that Americans start dying in the Middle East, uh the moment that they institute a draft, it will create chaos in America. People are going to protest, people are going to revolt.

Um, politically speaking, it will be a quagmire. What the American Empire wants to do is um use bombing, propaganda, and financing. And this something we discussed um last video to overthrow the Iranian regime, the Aatollah and his mas, and install a more friendly regime that they can control. And in that way they can control all the resources, the oil of the Middle East and they can control global trade as well. And they have to do this as a response to Putin's invasion of Ukraine which really put the American Empire on the uh back foot.

Okay. So that's the optimal strategy of the American Empire. Okay. to overthrow the regime with as little casualties um as possible uh hopefully through bombing, decapitation strikes, killing the Alatola um special forces strategies basically. Okay.

But the person leading the American empire right now is Donald Trump. And if we look at what he wants, it's actually not it's actually different from the what the American Empire wants. Let's ask ourselves a question. What game is Donald Trump playing? Does he really care about Iran?

Does he really care about the Middle East? Does he really care about Israel and Zionism and the Greater Israel Project? My guess is he does not care. What he cares about is maintaining his political authority and power within the United States. He also cares about destroying the global elite that in his mind robbed him of power in 2022.

Remember for Trump the 2020 2020 sorry the 2020 elections were stolen from him. It's something that that um he's been adamant about for the past four years. In fact, he stews over it. So he wants to get back at the global elite who stole uh the American election from him and also wants to make sure he stays in power. That means destroying the global elite and the American empire.

Okay, so it's really a struggle between America first represented by Donald Trump and American Empire. Now, you would think that this war uh between the American first people and the American Empire would mean that Donald Trump would not use ground troops into in Iran. But what better way to destroy the American Empire than to give it what what all that it wants? Okay. What better way destroy the American empire by making it arrogant um and by giving it all it wants and by um putting in a situation that it cannot possibly win.

Right? So the idea is this. The idea is at first Donald Trump will seem to want regime change in Iran. Um, and he may even commit ground troops, but as um the American people start protesting, as there's violence and civil strike within America, as American soldiers are start to die in Iran, as the glo economy collapses, then Donald Trump's going to want to change his mind, right? But the American Empire is fully committed to winning this war.

It wants it's allin. Um it refuses to surrender. And now a conflict emerges between the American Empire and America first. And Donald Trump can now um aggravate this tension by standing with America first over the American empire. And this would lead to a civil war.

And you think you would think this is a bad thing, but the civil war and an unwinable war in the Middle East uh are going to greatly enhance the power and authority of Donald Trump. So much so that he would probably able be able to capture a third term. Okay. So, um it's really interesting in that, um all three major players, Donald Trump, Israel, and Iran want America to use ground troops in Iran for their own selfish uh individual individualistic uh purposes. And that's why I think ground troops will eventually be used in Iran.

Um, and I think what will happen is that basically all three players, Iran, Israel, um, and and Donald Trump will get exactly what they want. Um, Israel will be able to remove America from the Middle East and become the empire of Israel. Iran will unite the Muslim world behind its leadership. And Donald Trump will probably get his third term. Okay, that's what I see um the um um upshot of this war being.

Now, this raises a lot of questions though, right? I mean, if Israel becomes greater Israel and it becomes the empire of Israel and dominates the Middle East, controlling oil and trade, then wouldn't the world unite against Israel? And unfortunately, that's part of the plan. That's part of the prophecy. Okay.

And this is something that we will discuss in the in the uh next video because using game theory itself is not you you it's not enough to fully explain understand what's going on in the Middle East. To fully understand what's going on in my next in my next video, I'm going to explain to you the religious um ideals, the religious um obsessions driving this war in the Middle East. I'm going explain to you the idea of esquetology which means the understanding um of how the world ends. Basically all the major players in the game Iran, Israel, even to a certain extent the United States, the Christian Zionist in the United States see this war in Iran as the fulfillment of biblical prophecy. It really they really see this as the end of the world.

And that's why this war is so scary for all of us. And um so in my next video I will reveal to you the religious dimensions of this war. Okay. Um some other points before I conclude this video. Some of you have reached out um in my last video and said that I should not u reveal my public um information.

I shouldn't put my family in front of the camera. And you're absolutely right. Um, upon reflection, I want to thank everyone who voiced their concerns. Um, honestly, this is all new to me. I was a high school teacher teaching my students and now I'm internet famous and everyone's looking to me for some guidance um, as to this US Iran war.

And I'm flattered um, but I'm also overwhelmed by the attention. I'm an ed I'm an educator. I want to continue to educate people on how this war is going to unfold so that you will be better prepared. Um I I see that as my my mission. And so I'm going to continue making videos.

I'm going to continue as this war progresses um explaining to you using game theory how this war how the hell how this war might unfold. Um but um I now understand that the internet can be a scary, crazy, insane place. So, I'm have to be much more careful about my public profile and I'm I have to be a lot more careful about protecting my family. Okay. So, I'm going to keep on making videos.

Um, but I apologize if you reach out and I don't really answer you. Uh, I'm being I'm I'm being overwhelmed right now. I apologize if you reach out and you want to have coffee and I can't do it. Um, again, my focus right now is on studying this war, trying to figure out what's going on, and in my and to the best of my ability, try to explain and clarify what's going on. Okay, so I will see everyone next time.

Goodbye.