Geo-Strategy #7: Who Killed Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi?

okay so let's start class and start to think about the question how and why did the Iranian president uh Ibraham Ry died okay so um when you do history or you when you do analysis about current events you're always going to have you're always going to encounter three major problems okay um the first major problem is that there's very little information that you can work with Okay uh truth is very limited that's the first problem second problem is that um the information that you have may not be true okay so there's also misinformation that's the second problem and the third problem is that there's always going to be an official narrative that the media the government publishes and it may not be true but it's the one that people people accept okay so um the challenge for us today is we know that the Iranian primary president Ibraham r basic died and we will have to use analysis okay Game Theory analysis to figure out how he died and who might have killed him does that make sense but the problem again is we are working with very limited information that the Iranian government chooses to disclose to the public okay so what do we know we know that as a fact that our on May 19th the Iranian president was in uh Azan for a dam opening ceremony and then he got into into his helicopter and he was flying back into the country and when he was flying back there was an accident that caused the helicopter to crash killing all nine people on board including the president the foreign minister three crew members um the governor of a province um a local religious leader uh The Bodyguard of the president and the head of the president's security detail okay so all nine people died and we have reason to believe that um the the most probable reason is an accident okay that this was an accident that it was um bad weather there's a fog the pilot couldn't really see any crashed into the mountain and the evidence for this is that um one this happens a lot for example in 2020 the very famous uh basketball player Kobe Bryant he died in a helicopter crash along with his daughter okay so this actually happens a lot um the second piece of evidence is that the helicopter they were flying uh in is very old it was basically an American Helicopter that um they start to use in the 70s and After the Revolution America refused to cooperate with Iran so they could never actually maintain the helicopter so may maybe it was just a malfunction okay um so these are two compelling reasons why most people believe this is an accident and this is again probably uh the cost that will go down in history okay but Game Theory analysis requires us to explore other possibilities so there are two other possibilities second possibility is foreign adversary which means that either the United States or Israel or even possibly aan okay but a foreign adversary um was responsible for this the problem with this Theory though is one of opportunity and motive okay so what this means is it's very hard as a for government to plan an assassination of a Iranian leader in Iraq right it's very hard the opportunity isn't there so maybe Israel America want him dead well how could they pull it off it's very hard to to to do such a thing okay um second problem is motive what reason would Israel or the United States have for killing the president now in the past United States and Israel have killed Iranians before so for example in January 20120 president Donald Trump ordered the assassination of General salamani uh in Bagdad okay but there was a motive here the motive is that salamani is responsible for Iranian foreign policy in the Middle East and therefore a direct threat to American interests okay and um Israel in the past has staged assassinations of Iranian nuclear scientists in Iran but again the motive is well Israel is afraid that Iran develops a nuclear weapon and therefore uh the easiest way to stop that is to kill the scientist okay um Israel in a on April 1st of this year also staged an air strike against the Iranian Embassy in Damascus killing two Iranian generals but again the motive is uh what Israel said was that these generals um were working with Hamas to threaten Israel okay so the motive is very clear and the problem here is it's very unclear what the motive is for killing the Iranian president okay uh um in fact there's a lot of risk in that but again I am not discounting the possibility it could be a foreign adversary and the third possibility is an internal enemy okay meaning that there were certain individuals or factions or groups in Iran that wanted the president dead okay and so with this eternal enemy uh idea opportunity this problem doesn't exist because um obviously these enemies would have resources to track down and kill the president okay um so an example of this is that remember that when the president was flying home he had in he had um there were three helicopters right it was only his helicopter that crashed the two other helicopters were fine now in theory and like we don't know who was in the other two helicopters but we can guess that they were probably military escort right they were there to protect the president but at the same time if they wanted to kill the president they could okay so was it the military so the opportunity was there but then the question then is is motive why would they do that and the answer is that um the possibility again we are looking at possibilities right everyone agreed that Ibraham razy would most likely become supreme leader of Iran when the current Ayatollah Ayatollah Kami died okay so RI is [Music] 63 um and CI is 85 so we can expect that with within the next five years camani will die and REI who many see as Chan prodige will become the Ayatollah now the um Iranian plugo system it's kind of strange because it's an Islamic Islamic Republic and what that means is that the ultimate Authority is God the Quran and it's the Ayatollah who represents uh the God and Quran okay so he's the ultimate Authority he has ultimate V veto power and the president is maybe like the CEO of the country okay so the PE the person with the real power in the country is the Ayatollah and if risi becomes the Ayatollah then we can expect major policy shifts in the country okay um okay so then the question then is okay well who would benefit from R's death and stopping him from becoming the next Ayatollah and what people say is and again guys uh I'm working with very limited information I don't know Iran that well I just read the news okay what people say is that there are two top contenders to be the next Ayatollah the first Contender the most likely is Rey the second Contender is actually Kam's son um mosta Kami okay so with him gone mosta Ki is most likely to be the next Ayatollah now this presents a problem for um Iran because it's an Islamic Republic It's supposed to be under the rule of God right and one thing that most Iranian oppose is the idea of hered hereditary leadership okay a father passing on leadership to his son because remember that in 1979 the Iranians had a revolution to overthrow the king and everyone was was in favor of over overthrowing the king okay so the if Musta Kami did become AA this would actually create a PO political legitimacy crisis in Iran okay and then the question then is okay all right so MOBA Kami benefits but who would benefit from having him as Ayatollah and the answer is actually very simple um there's a group in Iran called the Islamic revolutionary guard corpse okay or the IR GC okay uh we we will call them the re Revolution guards and what's interesting about them is that they are separate from the Army okay the military so where do they where did where do these guys come from and why are they separate from the Army what goes back to 1979 remember in 1979 there's a popular Uprising against the Sha of Iran the king of Iran and the government brought back I Iona Ki from exile to run the country and Ki at that time was afraid of the army because the Army had sworn allegiance to the king so to deal with this problem Ki established another armed group called The Revolutionary guard Corp okay and what they do is actually very different from the military the military has an obligation to protect the nation but the Revolutionary garor has a responsibility to protect the revolution the Islamic Republic okay which means ultimately that they are the Ki sorry they are K's private army they only obey him and the other thing about uh the revolution is that not only were they trying to bring an Islamic Republic to Iran but they were trying to export the revolution across the Middle East okay so basically the revolution garor had two main functions the first m function is to protect the AA and ensure the revolution succeeds in Iran but the other function is to export the revolution to the Middle East okay to uh spread uh Islamic revolution to uh Syria Iraq and that's why the Middle East were so Disturbed and so angered by the revolution all right now this was why the irgc was founded and because so many countries considered Iran to be a threat they encouraged Saddam Hussein to invade the country in 1980 okay and this start something called the Iran Iraq war and it was not just um the Americans who support this war War the Soviets also support sdam Hussein and the Middle East countries like Saudi Arabia um um also supported Saddam Hussein it was a brutal war and a lot of Iranians died but ultimately uh the Revolutionary guard Corps were a was able to protect the revolution from foreign Invaders and because because of that they became the most dominant military group in um Iran and so they almost had unlimited access to funds okay not only to protect the revolution in Iran but also to export it overseas okay so does this all make sense to you guys but with so much power they eventually became corrupt right today um um people believe that they control about 10 to 50% of the entire Iranian economy and because you have such a monopoly of power it meant that um over time the economy stagnated okay now Western sanctions American sanctions played a major role okay Iran couldn't really sell its oil overseas but the real problem was the fact that you had a monopoly of power this revolutionary gar Corp controlling the entire economy and this led to protests okay so the first group protest was in in 1999 you had 50,000 students protesting the lack of democracy in Iran what they were really protesting of course was the corruption of the Revolution guard Corp but you couldn't do that you can't say that so they were protesting for uh democracy they were crushed then in 2009 to 2010 there's something called the green movement and the idea of the green movement was that people wanted a new government that promised reform and in election their candidate the reform candidate lost and people suspected that the Revolutionary guard Corp um cheated and so there were violent protest and again the revolution guard suppressed the revolution um and at that point basically people lost faith in democracy and so afterwards every other uh president was basically a puppet of the regime okay and most the most recent protest that in 2023 there was a young woman named masah ameni and she was arrested by the police for failing to wear like head covering in public and she died in custody okay so people suspect that she was beaten by the police and this caused massive protests across the country okay so for the past 10 20 years there have been continuous protests in Iran about uh the government and the economy but mainly about the fact that the R goree has monopolized the economy to its own benefit which has caused the economy to stagnate and for for people to become poorer over time but because the protest are so widespread um the re Revolution guard Corp ironically has become more powerful because they are seen as the most loyal to the current regime okay they're loyalty is not um contested and so what this means is this what this means is that if is there if there's a change in leadership okay if the Ayatollah dies and the new Ayatollah comes into Power what the new Ayatollah will do is reduce the power of the Revolutionary gar does that make sense to you guys because he needs to establish his own power base and the r guard core was loyal to the current he's the the the r Gore is most loyal to the current leader the ayatolla kamani but if there's a new I comes to power he needs to establish his own power base so he he will bring his people into power and that means reducing the power of the of the ref guard Corp okay does that make sense and so there will be a direct threat to the ref guard Corp now if but if the current Leader's son mosta kamani were to become the new aola then things would stay the same and the reg gar would continue to control the economy okay does that make sense you guys all right so so again I'm presenting a reason why the Islamic ref guard Court would want to kill the current president um and ensure that the at's son becomes the next leader because they want to maintain the Monopoly of power over the country doesn't make sense to you guys all right now I now want to discuss who these people are and how they think about the world okay because um they're corrupt but they're ultimately religious Fanatics that want to export the revolution across the Middle East okay so let's talk about 1979 um in 1979 the Sha left Iran because there were so many protest against him he the shaw realized that um it was very hard for him to stay in power despite the brutality of the Army and the police there's just too many protests too many people want to see him gone okay so he goes to America and there are many Iranians who are outraged by this for two reasons the first reason is that they want the Sha the king of Iran to stand trial for all his human rights crimes while he was uh king of of Iran okay that's the first reason but the second reason is they were afraid that the Sha had gone to America to win America's support for uh a invasion of the country the Sha was trying to get America to invade Iran and put him back in power which which happened in 1953 okay and so to counter the threat of the Sha in November of 1979 300 to 500 students college students stormed the US Embassy and took it over and held 53 Americans as hostages okay and they demanded the Sha be returned to Iran to stand trial now um this is obviously an invasion of American territory this goes against international law but when the stud did this there was so much public support for the students that the authorities didn't really do anything also the Ayatollah Ki support the students okay so there was widespread public support for the students when the students invaded the embassy the first thing that diplomats must do is basically destroy all the P all all the files right all the secrets so um all embassies come with things called shredders you you guys know what shredders are okay shredders are just basically machines and if you want to destroy paperwork very quickly you put in the machine and the ma and the Machine will cut the paper into about 100 different strips of paper okay and this is the fastest most effective way to destroy your documents and there are about like tens of thousands of Pages can you guess what the students did over months the students slowly and methodically P the documents back together one by one and what these documents revealed to the students and to the public in Iran is that the real Center of power in Iran was not the palace where the shaw lived but the US Embassy it was the US Embassy that was directing policy in Iran it was the US Embassy that was responsible for the brutality of the regime and it was the US Embassy that in 1953 stag a couet against the democratically elected government of Iran and installed the police state of the shaw okay so these students um when they read these documents were really angry okay and you can imagine that these students because they piece together these documents right the're Fanatics and guess what guys these students have gone on to become the top military leaders of the country okay and I'll just give you three names um Hussein Dagan who was the Minister of Defense from 2013 to 2017 okay he was a student protester in the US Embassy that's one person second person is Muhammad Ali Jafari who is not who from 207 to 2019 was head of the Revolution guard Corp okay and and also Muhammad bagari who is still the chief of staff of the Iranian Army so the religious Gore are staff by individuals who hate America and see America as a great Satan and they basically want to go to war uh with America to avenge the wrongs and evils that America did to Iran okay does that make sense second thing I'll mention is that when when Sam Hussein invaded um Iran in 1980 Iran didn't really have an Army and the reason why is that uh the r guard Corps had arrested or exiled or executed the officers of the military because they were not seen as loyal to the revolution they were seen as loyal to the Sha okay so um Iran didn't have an army and S Hussein had airplanes he had tanks he had lots of soldiers and everyone thought that the war would end very quickly but then what the Revolutionary G guard Court did was they organized a new Army called the Basi okay the basashi and this was a volunteer army of poor religious people from The Villages and what the AL Alat Kini said to them is we don't have weapons but we have God on our side okay the Iraqis have armor but we have divine power and what they did was um for to these villagers and and these guys are about your age okay they're 16 17 18 and they gave each of these guys a rifle and a key to put over uh their necks okay and the idea is that this key is your entry into heaven because when you die in war you are granted automatic automatic entry into heaven and so these guys and they were organized into groups of like 22 okay okay they would run ahead across Iraqi minefields tanks would uh strike at them okay hel helicopters would come and strike at them and they would keep on running and of course um they would die okay because um they didn't have any armor but the Iraqis spent so much ammunition and bombs on them that eventually the Iraqi Army became exhausted okay does that make sense and so they they withdrew but then Iran took the fight to to Iraq but this shows you that um the main power in Iran why Iran is such a powerful military is that their R guard Corp are run by Fanatics with a passion for uh Revolution and they're supported by the Bazi who are these poor illiterate religious volunteers and there's tens of millions of them for Iran to draw on okay and um what the reg gar Corp has been doing after the Iran Iraq war is they they recognize that if an enemy comes attacks Iran people are going to die um so they want to take the fight to them okay and that's why for the past 20 30 years the re R gar Corp has been supporting um conflict in the Middle East okay they start something call the axis of resistance um so the active resistance includes uh Hamas in the Gaza Strip hesah in Lebanon the hufi in Yan uh Syria the Assad regime in Syria um as as well as Shia militia in um Iraq okay and so all the money that the Russ G Corp makes in Iran is then sent to this AIS of resistance to create conflict against Saudi Arabia United States and Israel okay does that make sense but so you can imagine that there's some people and there are actually a lot of people in Iran who are like why are we doing this again what what if we withdrew from the Middle East and just f Fus on our own economy then Israel Saudi Arabia and United States would have a reason to attack us okay so there are people who who are thinking like maybe the problem isn't Israel maybe the problem isn't United States maybe the problem is these guys because they're Fanatics and they're creating all these problems in the Middle East which is crippling our economy if we stop these conflicts and just focus on our own e Economic Development then maybe our people will be better off okay and one reason to think that there are people in um Iran politicians in Iran who are extremely skeptical of uh ref guard policy in the Middle East is that um in Jan 2020 in January 2020 remember that General salaman was assassinated by the Americans right the Iranian response wasn't that big of a deal okay the Iranians basically didn't respond whereas the ref Gore because their leader was killed they demanded Vengeance right they wanted to go to war but but we can suspect that it was a politicians like rayy who basically said no guys let's be patient okay going to war against Israel United States right now is suicidal so they were urging caution and restraint and the r guard Court didn't like that and then in and then April 1st of this year they surely struck the Iranian Embassy right which made matters worse and again at that time I'm sure the re ref G Court was let's just go to war and again I'm sure rayi and his team said to them guys we cannot beat the United States and Israel in a war let's be strategic about this let's be patient our time will come but we need to be patient okay and uh I'm sure that because they're Fanatics they were like they are in our way these politicians are cowards they're weak they're soft they're not Believers let's get rid of them okay and then what happened on May 19th was an opportunity arised where there was fog and they were like well here's opportunity and so they caus an accident okay does it make sense guys all right so again I don't know what happened but if we look at Game Theory and we examine who would benefit from the death of REI this group of people the r gar Corp would most benefit because it is very likely that if REI became next supreme leader their Authority and their policies would be challenged okay and so by getting rid of RI it makes maaba kamani the son of the atah that much more uh probable in ascending to the supreme authority and that allows them to maintain their power Monopoly of power and even if this assession causes a legitimacy crisis well it's good for them because then the regime is even more dependent on them okay does that make sense so during these protests as um the especially the green movement the Rel Gore was was the ones responsible for cracking down and they were violent and brutal in cracking down okay so okay um are you guys clear about the logic here any questions okay that's um great question so s asks does the military still exist and the answer is yes it still it still exists okay but again um the res G Corp has certain responsibilities that make it the most powerful group okay so the first thing is that um it's responsible for the Navy okay why is this important because the straight of homus is a very strategic shipping Lane and because and so they're responsible to maintain that straight okay and the Navy allows them also to smuggle which means that they can make more money for themselves okay so that's the first thing second thing is that they're also responsible for the uh missile program the missile program okay and this is where actually the military spends most of its money the missiles Okay the third thing thing uh is of course uh foreign policy meaning that the act of resistance gets in sorry the AIS of resistance owner interacts with the resue G Corp okay so uh General salaman and the two generals who died uh in the Israeli air strike they all belong to the Islamic revolution G Corp okay so these three things uh mean that the um Islamic revolution guard Corp they control basically all the money and all the power in the country okay but they're still military does that make sense all right any more questions okay so Jack asked a great question why is the reg gar why do they believe that they can control Marhaba kamani okay okay so um in 1989 the first Ayatollah Ki died and aah Kami succeeded him and the moment he became the new Ayatollah he focused on cultivating his personal relationship with the res guard Corp okay so basically he know there's about 2 ,000 of them and he made a point of meeting everyone and memorizing their names even knows the names of of their children so the current Ayatollah kamani has a great personal relationship with the Islamic repr G Corp okay they're basically his private Army and the reason why that the ref ref gar would transfer loyal to musaba is that mhab himself is an extremely unpopular figure if he were popular if he were like a clever politician then he would most then he would most likely become next Ayatollah but because he's he's very unpopular um there's a lot of resistance to him so if he becomes next Ayatollah it it would be only because the rary GP put him there which means that he must be loyal and obedient to their policies does that make sense Jack okay but that's a great question any more questions before I move on okay so Seline asked a great question what changes now that re is dead okay now all right so if it was an accident then in theory nothing changes because ultimately it's the a Ki who is responsible for policy okay but if I am correct and I and it's the it was a plan assassination uh by the res GARP then everything changes okay what this means is that um the political class goes away and the military class takes over and they dictate they dictate policy okay so you will see um first of all um there's going to be a a election okay so in late June there will be someone to replace the president and it's most likely that the current vice president who is Muhammad M mbar the current vice president will become the new president and this is important because rayy does not come come from the rest guard Corp he comes from the Judiciary okay that's a different Power base but Muhammad marbar comes from the ref gar Corp so he would Advance ref gar Corp interest okay and if that's the case then what what we'll see is um the country the leadership preparing its people for total War okay we will see that the rhetoric becomes more extreme and preparing its people for an eventual American Invasion there'll be much more harsh crack down on political descent okay um so that's the first thing second thing is that the res GARP cannot defeat America face to face okay the only thing that they can do to defeat America and Israel is to lure them into the country and they do that by provoking them okay so there are different things that they can do to provoke America the first is to accelerate the nuclear program okay what America and Israel have said is they see Iran possessing nuclear nuclear weapon as an exponential threat to the safety of Israel so this is a no no okay so if Iran accelerates the program this this is a direct Pro provocation okay that's the first thing second thing is to encourage the proxies okay so right now Israel is very concerned about hesah in the north Hamas has has already attacked them hesah could also attack Israel if hesah attacks Israel then Israel can only interpret this as Iran encouraging Hezbollah to attack them okay but if Hezbollah attacks Israel then Israel in the United States would see this as an escalation and they would be much more determined to eventually attack Iran in some in some way you also have um Shia militias in in Iraq who could attack US military bases okay you also have the hoovies in y man who can attack Saudi Arabia oil fields okay so you're encouraging your proxies to make things worse in the Middle East in which case United States can only conclude that we need to destroy the head of the snake which is Iran okay the second thing that that could happen the third thing that could happen is uh um basically Iran starts to attack shipping lanes okay it makes shipping much more difficult okay and the fourth thing is basically Terror basically um Iran through its proxy launches Terror attacks against America and its allies okay so there are many things that Iran can do to provoke a war and again if I'm right and I don't and again I don't know if I'm right or not then we should expect that in late June Muhammad marur wins the election and his rhetoric becomes much more extremist we need to take the fight to America okay we need we need to avenge solomani we can also expect that the in the midal ease becomes much more extreme okay and we we should see escalation um the acceleration of the nuclear program um proxies become much more violent uh shipping is is um Disturbed and you have a terror campaign uh throughout the world okay does that make sense all right but again I don't know um and also by the way just because these things might happen does not mean that RI was killed by the r gar Corp okay do you understand but I'm saying that um if in fact the r g Corp did Kill Ry then we should see these things happening but just because these things happen does not mean that uh REI was killed okay does that make sense all right any more questions um okay so seline's question is how would they fight the war and they can only F the war in one way which is to lure the Americans into attacking Iran okay does it make sense it is suicide to attack America in the open remember that America shuing all which means that they have ear suy which means have satellites that can see everything that you do which means have special forces okay it is suicide to attack America uh in the open so what Iran needs to do is Trick America into invading Iran and then America would lose for sure okay and that's something that we'll discuss next week but that but that's what they have to do and again if they provoke America enough then America will eventually get get angry enough to send an invas Force against Iran does that make sense okay any more questions is this clear is this clear to you guys the logic here okay so um again this is all speculation I have no actual information or evidence okay I'm just saying okay rayi died and it was probably an accident but if it was not an accident then who would most benefit from killing him or his death and the answer is the re the re revolutionary guard core because they see him as a direct threat to their Authority okay but at the same time what's important to remember is that any new leader would see these guys as a problem because they have too much power and they are creating too much tension overseas and they're too fanatical okay and so um uh it's most likely that they would want to elevate mosab kamani because mosab kamani is not popular and he would have to be loyal to the rever gar Corp or he would need their help to maintain power okay but I okay does that make sense guys all right so next class we'll discuss what an actual war between States and Iran would look like and what's important to remember is that I've been saying all semester that United States will lose the war but never have I said that Iran will win the war okay and the reason why is that this war will be brutal for Iran tens of millions of people will die for no reason and that's why politics like Ry and others are like let's not go to war okay all right so I'll see you guys uh next week