let's start class so um last week we discussed the possibility that um Trump will become president and we discussed that um if he does become president in a second term there will be a very strong likelihood that the United States will go to war with Iran now um the question today is okay okay Trump wants to go to war but will the US military agree ultimately it is the Pentagon that must implement this war and if there is enough opposition from the military then um it is very hard for Trump to push a war I want to make the argument today that the military will go along with the war and it has to do with what happened in 2003 okay so let's let's go back to the last time that America fought a major war it was the 2003 invasion of Iraq called operation Iraqi Freedom okay so at that time uh President George Bush and his people uh Vice President Dick Cheney uh Secretary of Defense Donald russfield and his Deputy Paul wolitz they want this war and they go to the Pentagon and and and say listen we we want this war give us a plan and the Pentagon uh the generals they're very experienced and conservative people and in general when you fight a war there are three things you must focus on okay the first idea is mass forces when you fight a war you want to overwhelm your enemy so when we say Mass forces we basically mean infantry and armor most wars um are fought using tanks and soldiers and um the Iraq Army at that time had about 370,000 soldiers okay and in general the general rule thumb when you invade a country is you want to have a three to1 Advantage okay the reason why is that when you invade an army sorry when you invade a country you need to hold territory and resupply your soldiers okay so you you need to advance you also need to hold territory um as well as we we Supply your your troops and have reserves okay so the general rule of Thum is that if your enemy has 300,000 soldiers you need about a million okay so that's the first principle second principle is the idea of you want to avoid encirclement the worst thing that can happen to your soldiers is if they become encircled by the enemy okay because then it becomes impossible to defend yourself right and the third idea is protect supply lines most of war is actually just Logistics how do you get uh oil and fuel and weapons from here to there okay supply lines so these are the three major uh principles that you must focus on when you fight a war so when the bush government asked the Pentagon for a plan the Pentagon went to uh the drawing board and said to invade Iraq properly we need about a million soldiers okay and and Donald russfield who was Secretary of fense and his Deputy Wolford said no we're going to do it with less than a million soldiers give us a plan with uh that requires less infantry and the Pentagon said okay um well we shouldn't do this but the most we can do is about 00,000 and wol said nope go lower and and eventually Roni and Wolford said I want we want you to fight this war with 100,000 troops 130,000 troops okay the Pentagon said to RFI and wolitz this is insane we will be outnumbered 3 to one when we fight this war how are we going to avoid encirclement how are we going to mass forces how will we protect supply lines and Ron field and wolitz who are not by the way professional soldiers they've never they've never really fought a war before they're like well we have this Theory a new theory of War called Shock and all and the idea of shock and all is that all militaries are hierarchies okay you have command and control so you have the head and then you have the body and then you have the arms and the legs well if we can go and cut off the head then the entire Army falls apart and we can do that because the nature of War has changed what the US military specializes in what gives us the advantage is three things or three things okay first is Air Supremacy we control the skies because we have the greatest air force in the world okay but second what's most important is technological omniscience omniscience means to know everything we're God the reason why is listen we have satellites that can see everything on everything on the earth we have technology that allows us to East drop on all electronic communications when you talk on the phone we can hear exactly what you're saying we know everything on the ground that allows us to have the power of God okay that's the second thing the third thing is we have special forces so special forces are soldiers who go into enemy territory and are able to Target and direct air power against the enemy okay and we America have the best special forces in the world and so with these three things we have a new doctrine of War we can fight war in a new way that's never been fought before but which will guarantee that war will be quick we'll do it very quickly cheap it won't cost that uh much money and third decisive we will complet completely destroy our enemy okay and the Pentagon was like you guys are insane this is not going to work this is a theory guys whereas this idea Mass forces avoid and CC protect supply lines we've been doing this for like thousands of years this is just experience this is just history this is reality guys this is just a fantasy all right but rsfi and wolf insisted and they said you must fight this war this way and they insisted and it turned out that this plan that the Pentagon most military planners thought is absurd insane unrealistic worked 100% the way it was supposed to work okay the second GF war in 2003 lasted exactly 3 weeks very quick the US military with only 130,000 troops was able to destroy an army of 370,000 in three weeks okay that's one second is that America lost at most 200 soldiers and most of it was due to Friendly Fire okay it was accidental this is insane this is not never happened before only 200 American soldiers died at most whereas tens of thousands of Iraqi soldiers um died okay and the third thing that was most impressive is some called Thunder runs okay this is just America flexing okay or showing off so what was happening was that America was so dominant that you had these American soldiers in their uh armored vehicles drive into Baghdad the capital city and they just drive around Circle it and no one could stop them and this is what they call Thunder runs okay and they did three of these it was purely an act of intimidation but it's also just showing off okay it's like you're in to fight and you decide you know what I'm so much stronger than this guy I'm going to do a back flip okay I'm so bored by this guy I'm going to do a back flip funder runs okay so these three things Show the incredible superiority of destruction of shock and um awe okay so um how's America able to achieve uh all this well I mean the first thing is uh the idea of air supery so one bomb called cluster bomb can wipe out an entire D tank Division and the reason why is that a cluster bomb inside has about four 40 bombs and these 40 bombs are equipped with GPS so what they can do is each of these bombs can go and find a tank it will latch onto a tank and blow the tank up so this one cluster bomb which doesn't really cost that much money can destroy an entire tank division uh by itself okay um the other thing um is Special Forces so the theory is that special forces if we make them the central core of our military that would have a devastating impact and and it was true so what was happening was that special forces could drive around and look for military insulations by themselves okay we're talking like a few people and then they could order in a air strike okay and then the the um planes were blowing up so shock and all was extremely um effective but the problem is that people don't really ask what did s sdam Hussein do wrong why was this so effective against Saddam Hussein and there actually three reasons okay to think that what happened in 2003 was not a revolution in military Doctrine not a revolution in Warfare but just a unique incident in war that doesn't really tell us that much okay in other words what was happening in Iraq could not be replicated okay and there were three three three reasons why the first is that Saddam Hussein had no ear defense okay he had no ear defense he didn't have weapons to counter the America's Air Supremacy the reason why is that in 1991 Sadam husin fought a war against America called the first Persian Gulf War okay Operation Desert Storm and his army got destroyed by American Air power and at this point America could have chosen could have chose to go invade Iraq and overthrow Saddam Hussein and America didn't so sdam Hussein learned two lessons uh from the Persian Gulf War which is number one I can never beat America there's no point in trying if America wants to beat the crap out of me I can't stop it okay that's the first thing first thing he learned second thing he learned is that America probably does not want to overthrow me because if he over frze me it would destabilize the country it would destabilize the region you would allow terrorists into the country um you would turn my people into terrorists you would Empower Iran so there's no way that America could overthrow me would want to overthrow me so let me just focus my resources on suppressing internal descent okay so he completely forgot about about America so even when it was clear that America America was about to invade he still did not put up any ear defenses because he didn't have any ear defenses okay so that's a first thing that was unique about the 2003 War okay second thing is that Iraq is a desert that makes it ideal for Shak and all right ear power can go anywhere you have satellites that can see everything Special Forces can just drive around okay so a desert makes an ideal situation for Shak and all and the third thing is just surprise no one in human history has tried to fight a war like this okay and so no one knew how what was going to happen so an example is that um special forces were in Western Iraq blowing up missile bases because the concern was that sdam Hussein would direct all his missiles his scuds against Israel okay so so much damage was being inflicted in Western Iraq that Saddam Hussein believed he was so confident that the that the that the main American Military was actually in Western Iraq when in fact they were in eastern Iraq so he diverted all his forces to Western Iraq and left backd completely open to attack from the East okay so no one had fought a war like this before and no one knew what to expect okay but obviously you can you you can only do this once right okay so the there are three special conditions uh to make us think that struck on all in the 2003 um Iraq war was just a one-off it was unique okay unfortunately uh the Americans don't know this okay right the Americans are like well all this does is prove our Theory to be correct okay so over so after 2003 America focused its military Doctrine um its military on shock and all okay so the example is Special Forces so before 2001 America had about 38,000 Special Forces today it has 73,000 okay that's a lot because America has a total Army of 1.3 million um mil the budget for Special Forces Black Ops okay it was about two billion in 200 uh 2000 and today it's about 13.7 billion so it's almost an increase of uh 7even times which is a lot but um this is just the public official number because special forces are Black Ops they can operate outside supervision of the military okay so in other words their their actual budget is probably 10 times possibly 100 times more than the official budget all right now now Special Forces um I want to talk very briefly about why Special Forces is a problem okay now traditionally militaries have been very strict hierarchies and there are good reasons for this okay you have to enforce order and discipline right but you're also concerned about the military overflowing the government right that's always been a problem throughout history so you must maintain complete control but when you do that um you create um a lot of problems in the military it is unable to react very quickly to hostile situations okay if terrorists come and attack you your military can't actually go and defeat them it's too slow okay um sometimes there are hostage crisis okay so so throughout the 70s a lot of airplanes were getting hijacked by by terrorists for these circumstances you need special forces okay soldiers who are outside your immediate control who can respond immediately to crises that's why you have special forces okay but in general you don't want that many special forces because again they're outside the control of your military okay they're independent sometimes of your military they have a lot of law of space to maneuver and to be independent um now why are special forces a problem it's because the people who volunteer for special forces are different from you and me okay to put it very lightly so for example let's look at um two one of the top two special forces in the world called SAS okay this is British Special Air Services the most one of the most elite certainly the oldest Special Forces um in the world the other is Delta and so you volunteer for Special Air Services you're you're you're applying okay and their first test is this the first test okay there are many tests but the first test is you have to run six marathons in five days okay oh that's just beginning you also have to carry a backpack of breaks while you are running six marathons in five days okay and you're like okay that's hard oh one more thing you're running the marathon on a mountain okay you understand you have to run six marathons in five days with a backpack of bricks and you have to go it on a on a mountain somewhere okay so even at that first test there have been some individuals who've gone crazy okay you have to put them put them in a hospital because they've gone crazy but that's just be the first test the last test is always torture they will be tortured to see how much they can resist torture okay because obviously when you're captured the enemy is going to torture you to get information out of you right what what are you doing here uh who is your commander are their other comrades with you okay you always be Tor tortured so they also have to withstand torture there's some other tests so for example in the French special services uh one test is that you will have to wear a bullet bulletproof vest okay and you will have to um hold a clay disc right and then your comrade will shoot a gun at you most people are like I'm not going to do this okay so in other words words the people who are special forces they're different from us physically but they're really different from us psychologically they have a different mentality so one special forces was interviewed by a reporter And the reporter asked him why did you choose to become Special Forces and his answer is well it's either I do special forces or I go rob backs one of the two in other words special forces are individuals who are addicted to risk and violence and guys in America there's 73,000 of them running around the world trying to protect the American Empire okay so uh Special Forces have increased and it's really changed the nature of uh the American Military so it's so it's good for America because now what shun all allows America to do is be everywhere at once and you'll never see them okay so for example uh the example is when Gaddafi was overthrown in the 2011 Libya War okay that was special forces but we don't know this because the special forces were hiding the background okay ear power against uh Gaddafi so in other words what Shaw and all really is is it's more than a theory of War it's ultimately a theory of Empire America is an Empire but unfortunately most Americans don't want to admit that because being an Empire means doing bad things to innocent people and what shakun all allows is for America to be an Empire without the guilt of being an Empire okay you have special forces doing all the work necessary in order to maintain this Empire without people actually knowing right so shakol is really a theory of Empire as opposed to a theory of War okay so does it make sense to you guys so far okay any questions so far yeah okay so Seline asked a great question um are there what what there's more special forces is it because there's more people who want to be special forces or is it because America needs more special forces the answer is both okay so so again the um America um after the fall of the Soviet Union no longer had a peer competitor so the understanding uh of America is that from now on they would have to fight Rogue regimes okay so small Nations that don't really listen to America um and these nations have to be toppled very quickly okay so the examples would be uh Iraq Iran North Korea okay the AES of of evil so America started to shift um its Doctrine to Shadow Wars okay Wars that you don't you don't really see uh but which would be effective in toppling um the um the regimes you don't like okay and so a lot of the resources were shifted into into special forces that allowed more people to enter uh Special Forces okay does that make sense okay all right any more questions before I move on all right now the question then is all right shock and all where does this come from it comes from uh one of the greatest disasters for America called the Vietnam War okay so from 1965 until 1973 um there's a civil war in Vietnam between North Vietnam which is communist and South Vietnam which is basically basically a a Us control puppet state okay and America sent soldiers from 1965 to 1973 to protect South Vietnam from um insurgents and Rebels and at the height of this war three million US soldiers um had to be deployed okay um and at the height in 1969 500,000 soldiers US soldiers were in country to fight against the rebels and the insurgents okay 58,000 US soldiers died in this war three million at least three million Vietnamese died in this war two million of them were civilians innocent civilians okay over 300,000 US soldiers be were wounded okay they went home without without legs without arms and they were traumatized and this was an extremely controversial war in the in America because they were trying to fight the war using standard military Doctrine Mass forces right so they institut did something called a draft so if you were a young American you had to go fight in this war in Vietnam but you didn't know why you had to go fight this war and ches are that you would either die or you would lose a body part in this war so it became extremely unpopular in America the other thing is that there were a lot of journalists uh in Vietnam during this time they were reporting on how America was killing Vietnamese for no reason so the most famous story is something called The myly Massacre where American soldiers went into to a viese village and killed everyone there okay 300 people 400 people okay and and this was happening actually quite a lot so there was widespread anger and protest in America at this time which ultimately forced America to withdraw in 1973 okay and um the US military was very angry about this war because the thing about generals is they don't like to lose Wars okay when they fight Wars they want to win at all costs and they felt that they were betrayed by the country they were fighting hard to maintain the American Empire to fight against communism and this was bringing wealth power and Prestige to America but the American people the American politicians the American democracy Republic refuse to make the necessary sacrifices in order to maintain this Empire and so the AL many American generalist felt betrayed by what happened in Vietnam okay now there's a very famous incident during this war called the Pentagon papers in 1971 in 197 won a group of American analysts okay they were these are military analysts working in the military they cly got together and they and they tried to compose a secret history of the Vietnam War and this is called the Pentagon papers this was meant to be classified this was not meant to be read by the public but one of them Daniel ellsburg linked it to the newspapers Washington Post in New York Times and they published it and people were angry by the Pentagon papers because what the Pentagon papers said is one America has been secretly fighing this war for a long time okay so many presidents including Eisenhower Kennedy and lynen Johnson were expending this expending this war without public approval without Congressional approval okay so there's a lot of deception that's the first thing second thing is that the politicians the presidents knew this war was not winnable you couldn't win this war okay and the reason why is that these um Vietnamese peasants they were unbeatable because what what they were doing was they were digging tunnels underground and then when American soldiers were coming they would just pop out these tunnels shoot at them and then disappear back into the tunnels okay it it was like as though they could swim underground they were not beatable second thing is that they had an unlimited supply of weapons and you're like wait a minute um these peasants don't have weapons and the answer is they got these weapons from their enemies okay so the first thing is that these soldiers these American soldiers were in in the jungle and they were carrying backpacks of ammunition right and sometimes they would lose a fight or they run away in the jungle because it's very hard to carry these backpacks of ammunition right they would drop these ammunition and guess what you're now arming the enemy right because these peasants would pick up these ammo and use it themselves that's the first thing second thing is that the US military dropped more bombs s on Vietnam than in World War II combin okay more more bombs were dropped in Vietnam then in World War II combined okay does that make sense and about 20% of these bombs didn't explode and if they didn't explode the enemy could pick them up and transform them into landmines and the it was these landmines that were killing more Americans than anything else that's the second thing third thing was that the uh South Vietnamese Army was extremely corrupt so they were taking these American weapons and selling them to the rebels okay so then the question then is if you can't really see this enemy they're everywhere okay they can swim underground and if you're supplying them yourself so matter no matter how much weapons you can bring into this country how are you going to win this war the other thing is that these peasants were getting angry at you because obviously in this war you're killing a lot of innocent people right who happens to be their brothers their sisters their children their parents okay so as this war was dragging on the Vietnamese were becoming more embittered and more Angry so there's no way you were going to win this war okay that's that's a pentagon paper second thing the third thing is okay the question then is if um these American Presidents these American leaders know for a fact that this war cannot be won why were they fighting this war why were they contining to fight this war and the answer is unfortunately the answer is credibility okay we don't want to lose face guys okay we don't want to lose face if we withdraw from Vietnam if we admit that peasants in pajamas can beat us Soviet Union would laugh at us China would laugh at us the entire world would laugh at us we don't be laughed at so that's why we're staying in this war okay so to summarize what the Pentagon papers said okay three things one is that the American government lied to the people and um turn this into a major war that's first thing second thing is that America cannot possibly win this war Okay the third thing is that um America's only in this war So to avoid losing face that's it there's no strategic purpose there was no strategic objectives from fighting this war it was just like we don't want to lose face we don't be laughed at that's it okay so obviously when the Pentagon papers were released to the public everyone was angry okay and the anger was so tremendous that America had no choice but to ultimately withdraw from the war and so the Pentagon felt betrayed by democracy the politicians were more concerned about winning elections than about winning wars okay people could protest and Def and and defy the military they refuse to make the sacrifices necessary to win this war the media um could insult the military so so there were many in the military who F that listen if we are to maintain the Empire we need to divorce the Empire from democracy okay Empire and democracy do not get along if we want to win a war our greatest enemy is not the enemy but Democracy in America and that's why you have shock and awe right because because the entire point of shock and awe is to minimize casualties and if they are casualties you can't see them because they're all blown up right and it's quick so it's impossible for people to um start to get angry okay sh and all means that America no longer has to make any sacrifices you no longer need the consent of the people to fight the war you don't even need Congressional approval to fight the war you can now escape the shackles of democracy in order to do what you must to protect the American Empire higher okay does that make sense so shakun all was really response to Vietnam War and what shock and all means is that the Empire is no longer burdened by democracy special force can go and do what what they must without any oversight and consent from the people okay does that make sense guys okay so this is a shun law is really a theory of Empire what America must do in order to maintain um its Empire around the world any any questions before I move on about this okay so s asked a great question which is okay I make the argument that shol only works in uh Iraq right um and what would happen in other words okay so the thing about America for the past 20 years it's it's been mainly fighting wars in the Middle East and it turns out the entire Middle East is a desert okay all right so this Shu and all policy has had tremendous success in uh Iraq and then in Libya okay because America overthrew Gaddafi and Libya and also it's also had some success in Syria as well okay so from the perspective of America we're really only fighting Wars in a desert shock on all is fine okay but our next class we'll discuss Iran and Iran is not a desert it's mountains and I'll show you that shock andol is not going to work in Iran okay but that's next class okay does that make sense all right any more questions yeah yeah yeah okay so Jack makes a great point which is okay yeah but most people would say that America lost the Iraq War because of the Insurgency right okay so okay that's a great Point okay you can make the point that America for the past 20 years have lost all wars in Iraq and Afghanistan because they have not been able able to control the Insurgency okay but the problem with this is that shakan all it's not designed to stabilize countries shakol is meant to topple and Destroy countries do you understand and so the argument can be made that the real intention of shakun all is to make sure that no power in the Middle East can arise to challenge America Supremacy okay so yeah in Iraq the insurgents um ultimately won but is Iraq a functional State and the answer is no right is Libya a functional State no there's still civil war going on in Syria right so that's a great that's a great Point okay and and it it it comes down to what is the ultimately what is the ultimate design and intention of the empire is it to replace regimes or is it to destroy countries and you make the argument that shakol is really designed to destroy countries and not to um replace regimes okay does that make sense Okay now what's important to understand is um that one of the theories of the invasion of Iraq is to bring democracy to the country okay but the problem with that is from the start they did everything wrong okay so first thing is they they really didn't have enough soldiers to maintain peace right in the country so there's a lot looting so the entire country broke down second thing is that during the air campaign um America destroyed all the infrastructure necessary for society okay so including water supply including electricity grid why would you do that if your intention was to bring democracy to the country right the third thing is that the very first the American government did when they took control over Iraq is something called deification okay which is say that if you used to work for the old government government you're now out of out of job hey the Iraqi military you're now disbanded but and and then the question then is ha if your ultimate objective is to bring democracy to the country why would you destroy all political infrastructure in the country why would why would you destroy the ability for the country to govern itself as well as to maintain order as well as to feed the population why would you do that okay so an argument can be made that the real intention was not to bring democracy to Iraq it was just to destroy Iraq to maintain American Supremacy as well as to um teach others a lesson don't mess with us we'll come and destroy you okay does that make sense okay but this is something we we will discuss later on okay in another class okay all right all right let's now move to the last topic which is the theory of Empire so this is not the first theory of Empire America had it's actually the second theory of Empire um the first theory of empire was in 1991 remember that 1991 America launched um an attack against Sadam Hussein because sdam Hussein invaded Kuwait right so um at that time 1991 the Soviet Union had collapsed America was the only hamon was the only Power and it presented a new theory of Empire how America will rule the world okay so the first idea is limited strategic goals or objectives okay so for example in 2003 when American America invaded Iraq its strategic goals were pretty uh unachievable okay it was basically like we're going to bring democracy and peace to Iraq and the Middle East okay whereas in the Persian Gulf War led by the father right George her uh Herbert Walker Bush the the first and only goal was to remove s Hussein from Kuwait that's it okay we're not going to go to try RQ and top s Hussein we're not going to inflict punishment on sadd Hussein all we want to do is remove him from Kuwait okay that's the first thing second thing is that America did so with a coalition of countries okay dozens of other countries were part of the war and America played a leading role but it also had to defer to its Partners okay so for example um countries like Saudi Arabia who participated in the war were like there's no way we'll topple Sadam Hussein we we'll only stop at Kuwait okay so the United States deferred to its Partners okay and the third thing was and this is the most important is that the ultimate leader was the United Nations the United States had to go and make a case to the United Nations the United States the United Nations gave its consent to the military action okay so the United States made the argument that this is not a US military action it is a UN military action okay and so the important principle is to maintain the rules based in National order okay so what America said at that point is yeah I know we are the greatest power in the world I know the Soviet Union has collapsed I know that militarily no one can challenge us but with this power comes great responsibility we must show humility we must show discipline we must show restraint our priority will be to maintain the national rule space order because this will bring Prosperity freedom and stability to everyone okay and that means that if we use military op if we use the military it will only become because it's the last resort the last option and only for a limited strategic objective we will only do so with partners and we will only do so under the umbrella of un Authority okay so this is the first theory of Empire you think about it wow great What a Wonderful World right here's the question then why did America not do this anymore why did it switch to shock and a shock and a is basically unlimited strategic goals unilateral military action right we America will do this by ourselves we don't really need anyone okay and then America just just basically bowling we make the roles why did America do this why this transition from the first theory of Empire which is great it would allow America to rule the world forever to now the second theory of Empire which is pissing the entire world off why okay so this is really hard to understand okay but but let's use an analogy okay so Jack is my son okay and I'm a billionaire I have 10 billion why do I have 101 billion it's because one I'm smart okay I'm smarter than everyone else two I work really hard okay and three I bribed a lot of politicians so I have $10 billion but I'm like 95 years old and I know I know I'm gonna die okay so I invite Jack who's my son to dinner and I say to Jack Jack um I love you and I want what's best for you I'm going to die very soon and you will inher herit my Empire okay and I want you to know that you don't have to worry about anything Jack because I have 100 advisers who control this Empire who manage this Empire and they are great they're experienced they're loyal they're strategic every year Jack they make 10% for us okay so $10 billion they make a billion dollar for every year when I go they're still going to matage this Empire for us and you know what they're going to give you every year Jack $100 million to do whatever you want you want to go buy an airplane do that you want to go by an island do that you want to party with movie stars do that you can do whatever you want okay so Jack as my last wish as my dying wish I want you jack my son who I love to promise me that after I die you will listen to my 100 100 advisors okay so Jack do you promise me you promised me right and then I die and and then what is the first thing that Jack will do the very first thing he will do come on guys hard your first thing you will do okay is fire everyone get out of here okay what's the second thing you will do you're gonna hire all your friends Jack okay you're gonna hire all your friends okay and what's the third thing you're you're GNA do you're GNA do something really stupid okay you'll be like you know what my dad only made $10 billion those advisors only make 10% a year I'm going to invest in Bitcoin I'm going to invest in AI I'm going to invest in the Chinese stock market the Chinese real estate market and make hundred billion dollar okay and then he loses all the money you understand all right it it this happens all the time guys okay right ask yourself if you're dad were rich and he was about to leave you a lot of money would you listen to professional people no no you like no I want to have fun okay so the question then is the first fear of Empire okay which said that for America to maintain its Empire it must demonstrate to the world humility discipline and restraint why did they get rid of this and move to shock and all which is like we'll do we'll do anything we want why why why would they do that because it's fun okay do you understand what is the point of having an Empire if you cannot blow things up for no reason there's no point we have the greatest military in the world let's just blow things up for like no reason okay all right now there are three fundamental problems with shock and a okay the first problem is that you become overcommitted do you understand you believe that shun all allows you to be God you can be anywhere at once fighting all wars okay you're overcommitted second is you lack strategic Focus meaning that you actually don't have a plan you don't know what you want to do with this Empire you know you just want to maintain this Empire okay so you don't have actually have a strategy in place okay and the third thing is hubris you don't think anyone can challenge you you don't think you can lose a war okay and so the idea of hubis is this right now America has this huge Empire and it's refusing to spend the necessary resources to protect the Empire so for example the US Navy okay 1945 it had 7,600 ships today guess what guys it has 475 these 475 ships must go around all around the world to protect shipping lanes okay the US military in 19 in 1991 during the first person Gulf War had two million soldiers today has one 1.3 million soldiers okay so in other words if America ever fights a war a major war it's going to have a lot of problems the other thing is that America doesn't even have manufacturing capacity anymore okay it's not it doesn't have any factories anymore which means that if it fights a war it can't fight a war for a very long time so the example is that for every for every ship that America makes China can make 300 ships okay America no longer has this manufacturing capacity that it had during World World War II okay so in other words why will the military agree to the stupid war in Iran because it's overcommitted it has no strategy and it's because it's arrogant all right and it and and the military is like this because of what happened in 2003 shock and all does does that make sense to you guys right so next class we will look at what the Iran War will look like and I guarantee you that shakan all is not going to work in Iran all right and but I'll explain why next class any questions before we end for the day oh so Selen asked a great question what's the difference between uh the people who believe in the first Theory and the second theory okay okay and the answer is this the people who believe the in the in the first Theory came from an older generation okay this is a generation that fought in World War II and who fought the Cold War so they understand what war looks like war is really bloody and it's terrible and we must do our best to avoid war okay the second generation 2003 are individuals who don't know what war is okay like if you actually look at videos from 2003 the war it actually looks like a video game you understand you don't actually see what they saw in Vietnam which was all these soldiers losing their arms and crying okay I mean the images from Vietnam were just terrible it was hard for people to watch but the the the the golf war in 2003 it was just a voo game it was just like things getting blown up okay you don't actually see the people dying and again only 20 people died 20 soldiers died in the um in 2003 okay so uh in other words unfortunately America has headed towards disaster okay because the people in charge have no experience they they don't know what war is and they don't know what the hores of war is and they've inherited a lot of money and they want to enjoy the money okay they want to have fun okay does that make sense okay all right great so I'll see you guys next class