Civilization #6: Elite Overproduction and the Bronze Age Collapse

okay so today we will discuss the bran age collapse um I want to paint you a picture of the world in about 1,200 uh BC about um so in this world the center of this world is um what we call masan Greece okay across from the M gree across the agan SE okay this is the agent is what we call Anatolia today we refer to Anatolia as turkey okay and the in Anatolia the highte Empire rules um Anatolia further south is a place called canine okay canine is important um when we do the Bible because that is the birthplace of the Israelites okay so canine today is what we refer to as Lebanon uh Syria and Israel today uh Canan is a province of the Egyptian Empire okay so this is Egypt okay um over here is a place called Mesopotamia and we today call Mesopotamia uh Iraq okay um over here is today what we call uh Iran back then it was basically Persia over here is Afghanistan and then next to Afghanistan is India and of course remember these are the steps okay so for Mason and Greece you also had the Mediterranean and over here are the islands of Cyprus and Cit um and then over here is a place called Iberia and over here is Britain okay so this is a this is a map of the world in 1200 BC and what's really important for you to recognize about this world is it's interconnected meaning that they are trading and communicating with each other okay this is what we call the Bronze Age the Bronze Age and why is it called the Bronze Age because they're trading basically bronze during this period back then bronze is like oil today okay it is the basis for the economy the very structure of their economy um bronze is an alloy made of copper and Tin um coer and Tin you have to mine okay and and only a few places will have these resources so tin is found in Britain in Liberia in Anatolia in Afghanistan okay um copper is mainly found in Cyprus and CIT and also in Anatolia okay now meaning and what this means is in order to make bronze you basically have to trade with the entire world okay so uh India this world the trading would go as far as from India to Britain even China over here was part of this world but not to the degree as these other places okay um in this world there are different ways that you can profit or make money okay the first the first way is mining so basically extracting resources to incorporate in order to make bronze second way is uh industry manufacturing right so turning uh so making bronze from tin and copper and then turning bronze into weapons into Pottery to be sold elsewhere the third way you can make money is by what trading right so in this world if you look at this map who basically profit the most from Trading if you look at this map who would make the most money from trading this area right does that make sense because it is the center of the world you the pass through this world in order to access everywhere else okay and this place over here if you look at the map it becomes the center of the world because this place becomes the logistics Hub of the world right to get to anywhere you have to pass through this place and so this place can basically collect toes right this place is called what you guys know excuse me yeah it's it's the toll gate of the world right you have to pass through this place in order to access other places therefore this place is very wealthy this place can you guess what this place is called you guys can you guys guess Choy have you guys heard of the chosan war okay we will do The Iliad uh next semester we will discuss the ilad next class but I want you to understand this place is called Troy and because this place is so important for centuries they've been fighting Wars over this place because it's really uh the center of the of the universe right if you can control this place you become very wealthy because everyone has pass for you you can collect tolls um you can trade okay does that make sense and the last way you can make money off this world is what what what what's the last way in which you can make a lot of money in this world we can do it through mining industry trading what what else can you do to make money piracy right does there make sense steel right hary right so when we read the OT what you will discover is um the Greeks Who attack Troy they were basically PIR Pirates uh Troy made a lot of money off trading and Pirates went to steal a lot of their resources and wealth okay does that make sense so um the main point is that this world was interconnected it was a globalized world we call this globalization but at the same time it was very chaotic it very it was very Dynamic okay they traded with with each other but they also fought Wars against against each other does that make sense and uh these places in the center of the universe my in Greece okay became very wealthy because they traded and they and they um engaged in piracy uh the high ties became very wealthy Egypt became very wealthy okay because they were the center of the universe but a couple of decades later this entire world collapsed this world disappeared meaning that Maia Greece was destroyed it was completely burned down and they lost about a quarter of their population okay the hiat Empire destroyed and even though canine disappeared and even though Egypt was not destroyed it ceased to be a hedgemon it ceased to be a global power and a few decades later they were conquered by outside powers okay after 1200 BC Egypt ceased to be a power so this is what we call the bran age collapse and for the decades Scholars have been trying to figure out what happened why is it that in 1200 BC this world was wolfy it was interconnected and then a few decades later it all disappeared it collapsed and that's a great mystery that no one has been able to solve okay so let me tell you what we know we know that what caused this collapse or what we call the sea peoples sea peoples and we know because um Egypt has written records of battling the sea peoples so basically over the course of a few decades people were coming in from the west and attacking Egypt okay this was not one people this was a series of different peoples attacking Egypt from the sea and Egypt had to spend decades in order to repulse the sea peoples what we know is the sea peoples whoever they were they didn't destroy Egypt but they did did they destroy the high ties and they did destroy the masan Greece Okay so and what we figure what what we know is the sea peoples they were basically a combination of pirates and also refugees these people attacked Egypt because Egypt was the Bread Basket of the world that's where all the food was so they're attacking Egypt for the food okay these are people who are hungry they join Pirates had ships they were trying to take over Egypt together they destroyed Mas and Greece they destroyed the high tides but they fail to destroy Greece they were stopped they they were stopped in Egypt okay so another question then is was driving this population movement from west to east okay that's a great mystery and over the past few decades different solutions different ideas have been proposed okay before we fought that it must have been an invasion so the idea is that what's happening is you had people from the north of Europe invade Mas and Greece which drove them Westward okay that's the first um idea that we had but we have not found any evidence to this to we have not found any evidence this is the case Okay so even though this was a one of the first theories there's actually no evidence to support this second theory that we had um is basically a natural disaster so the idea is maybe there was a volcanic explosion somewhere okay and this caused the weather to change and Now farmers could no longer feed themselves so then they started to move westwards and attack Egypt okay that's a second theory and there's more evidence for this but this but the um theory that we have today is a perfect storm okay or a systems collapse and the idea here is that it was not one thing in one year that caused this system to collap it was a series of events over decades okay and these three major events are um natural disasters or so basically earthquakes so we have archaological evidence that there was a series of earthquakes in this region at this time which destabilized the region okay so earthquakes happen we also have evidence of climate change okay so the weather became cooler over the course of this period which meant that it was harder to grow crops okay and we also have evidence of Eternal Revolt okay meaning that people rebelled against the elite overthrew Kings and there was a lot of war and violence okay so the the theory that we have today is what caused the bran H collapse was a perfect storm basically a multiple factors which led to systems collapse okay does that make sense guys any questions so far any questions so far are we clear all right so one thing that you have made you that you have made notice in this class is that I have a very different understanding of History than other people okay so I happen to disagree with this theory of the per storm even though it is the scholarly consensus right so I want to explain to you today my theory of what happened all right so the first thing you you need to understand is this system collapsed even though it was traumatic for Europe it is not unique in human history this sort of stuff has happened before okay so we we if we go over here to North America uh to the Mayas okay so the Maya the Maya civilization existed in Central America okay or gu Guatemala basically um and so we find a similar pattern where in about 200 ad okay in the year 200 their civilization start to explode okay it start to increase it's re reach its peak in about 900 00 ad okay in the year 900 its civilization was over the place in Central America but then after 900 it went all the way down okay so about 30 years Time by 1200 they're basically their entire civilization almost collapsed so it's a very similar pattern to what was happening in the Bron age so the question then is why does this happened all right and so to understand this I going to present you with a new theory that we will use a lot in this class so I want you to understand this Theory okay but it and it comes from a historian by the name of Peter Turin Peter turchin who's a historian uh he's uh American but he came over from Russia he's basically russian-american and and um he has a theory called Elite overproduction and Elite over production the theory is very interesting because it's arguing against the way we traditionally understand why societes collaps okay so the way we we usually understand why societies collapse is we get from KL marks and basically what KARK says is eventually your Society um collapses because the people Revolt okay so basically people Rebellion so in other words KL Marx believes that Society collapses because it is a bottom up process okay it's a bottomup process if you treat workers badly they will stop working if you force them to work they will go on strike if you force them to work again they will fight against you they will Rebel Okay a work a revolution that's what KL marks um argues and Peter Turin says okay that's a really interesting Theory but if you look at the historical data if you look at the evidence the problem is in the bottom okay if you look at why collapsed it's not because of of the people reell it's because there's infighting among the elite okay so there's Civil War among the elite does that make sense that's his theory if the problem with Society isn't that you there's too many poor people the problem are the problem is there are too many rich people that's the real problem and that's why SI collaps right all right so let let me explain to you this Theory slowly okay all right Elite over production all right all right okay it's fine all right so in this world about 1200 BC we have something called a permanent hereditary Elite okay permanent hereditary Elite permanent just means they're always there okay hereditary means they pass on their status and their privilege and their wealth to their children and this is new in human history because before there was an elite but they were not permanent meaning they could be changed over time and they didn't pass their privileges on to their children everyone had to earn their privilege and pass power okay so the elite was constantly shifting in society but now in about the year 1200 BC you had a permanent teritory Elite when you have that you have three advantages okay what they lead give to society are three major advantages the first major advantage is the idea of organization right basically think of the elite as your brain of as society's brain they can help coordinate resources okay that's good for war you're fighting an enemy you need an elite to lead you into battle okay it's also good for public works okay so think of the pyramids in Egypt and the Great War of China right you need an elad to um organize your resources in order to create Public Works that benefit all Society so the main the main thing here would be irrigation right yes so you need a lead in order to have irrigation so that's the first major benefit of having a permanent teritary Elite second major advantage is because you have better organization you have more wealth okay so becomes wealthier if you have a permanent Elite people work harder okay and even though there's more inequality inequality also forces people to work harder does that make sense okay and because you have these two things organization and wealth you also have scale and what scale basically means is your population now can move up before in the in the egalitarian society when you didn't have a permanent Elite at most Society could reach about 10,000 people but now when you have when you have a permanent Elite you can reach about a million people okay so now you can scale up so these are three major advantages to having an elite okay but there's a problem with having an elite and the the problem is they engage something called rent seeking behavior all right I want you guys to remember this term R sicking Behavior which is very important for our class so what does this mean it means basically um so think of a landlord right a landlord doesn't really do anything but a landlord has land that it can rent to you the farmer and exchange you give me a share of your crops right so I don't do anything but because I have land I can rent it out to you right it turns out the elite mainly make their money through rent seeking Behavior so let me give you another example of rent seeking behavior all of you want to go to university right why do you want to go to university what's your purpose what's your purpose in going to University be honest it's to get the degree right okay the degree okay and the degree is your ticket to success in society okay you believe that when you go to university you are getting a ticket the degree in order to access social Mobility okay to access wealth in society in other words the universities are charging you rent okay so the degree is basically rent does that make sense okay now some of you may say wait that's wrong because I'm going imers you to learn right it's about learning well guess what when you actually go to university you're going to discover they don't actually teach you that much okay they don't have to teach you that much and the reason why is you're stuck paying the rent you need the degree right so you don't have to actually teach you anything you have to come to class anyway does that make sense the same thing for the school where in order to get to University you have to go through this high school so you're here paying tuition and you're paying rent does that make sense you're not here in school to learn you're here in school to get the degree so that you can access University and get the get get that degree okay and all this process all you're doing is paying rent right so if you are if you have a school you can charge people rent just as as if you're landlord you can charge people rent for renting your room or real estate property okay does that make sense this this is what we call Rent sicking Behavior now you're like okay well this kind of sucks okay and it does suck but what keeps the system together is the idea of a social contract okay basically the idea of social contract is yes we the elite we know we are Charing your rent and we know this sucks for you the people but we have a contract so as the elite I'm obligated to help Society okay so uh the way they help Society is uh by giving back to society okay so so what the elite do in throughout Society in the past is they organize um public Feast okay and also public temples so in today Society you know like the parks the schools they're built by the government right but back then they didn't have a government that the elites who were responsible for building temples for building uh for for holding public fees okay so this this is the idea of a social contract okay and the reason why you need a social contract is because if you don't have a social contract and you just charge rent people will leave does that make sense okay so in this world it's very chaotic but there are different places there are different sortal organizations you you you can go to so if you are in uh Egypt and you don't really like Egypt guess what you can go to Mesopotamia okay so these cities were in competition with each other for people because people provided labor and resources okay does that make sense all right so this is how it usually works but over time this system will break down okay this system will breakdown and it's and it's because of red sicking Behavior okay so the first issue is this with rent sticking Behavior you create something called debt okay so I'm a landlord and you're you are paying me rent in order to use my land right and that land and that rent is usually a portion of your crops okay so you you does that make sense maybe 10% of your crops but let's just say for example it's a bad year it doesn't rain okay and you don't have any crops to pay me rent so what do you do you're supposed to pay pay me a rent but you don't have the money so what do you do uh no that comes later what what do you do first H exactly thank you yes okay so the first thing that happens is uh borrowing okay you basically go into debt okay so you promis to pay me double in the next year and I'm like okay fine right but you get unlucky and the next year it's also a bad year and so for five years in a row you are in debt the problem with debt is this something called compound interest okay meaning like over time the debt becomes so large there's no way you can pay it off if you can't pay it off what happens what happens now okay good yeah so the idea is De slavery okay so if you can't pay me back you become you become my slave okay you promis me that your children will work for work for me for free okay and so Deb slavery becomes the natural product of rent sicking Behavior does that make sense over time you're always going to have a percentage of your population who go into debt slavery and this creates a lot of inability in society because obviously they either want to run away or they they want to rebel okay does that make sense the other problem is um Elite over production and the idea here is everyone wants to be the renter right everyone wants to be the landlord right but there's only so much land so now people are competing for the power to charge rent does that make sense okay so over time in any society as the population increases the number of people who go into that slavery increase and therefore people at the bottom are very angry but at the same time the elite the number go up but it's only a set number set amount of land and therefore they have to fight over the land okay does that make sense and So eventually what happens is the society goes into war okay as the elite fight each over as Elite fight each other for the right to charge rent okay doesn't make sense and so the main message of elite over production is unless you can control the amount the number of the elite in your Society your Society must collapse does that make sense it must collapse because you have too many people fighting for for too little power it must collapse so historically what are ways you you what are things you can do to control the elite what what are things you can do to control the number of the elite excuse me kill the elite okay um so so but then where does the property go okay so okay so one possible thing you can do is the idea of land redistribution okay so historically this is one mechanism you can use to control the growth of the elite and this is how kings came into Power okay so most societies have an elite and then one person from the elite said listen this Society is not working let me redistribute the land and cancel debt in order for our society to keep on going okay and this person became the king so that's one possible solution okay okay what's another possible solution me okay so you can also have a civil war okay Civil War okay the can fight amongst themselves and whoever wins gets gets everything okay so that's a second possible solution what's another possible solution what's another possible solution okay Empire building right does it make sense Empire Building in other words let's not fight amongst ourselves let's go and Conquer New Territory it doesn't make sense so because you you have a permanent teritary Elite okay over time they're going to reach a mass too many people when you have too many Elite you have to resolve this issue through three ways okay the first thing you can do is kill the elite and redistribute the land that's what a king does second thing you can do is have a civil war Okay the third thing you can do is create an empire okay but the these three solutions by themselves are also unstable okay because L redistribution is basically a revolution right Civil War is war Empire Building is also War does that make sense so no matter how you do these things you're always going to create instability and eventually your Empire your Society will collapse does that make sense all right so let me give you another example of how this works to clarify for you okay so um there's a book called capital in the 21st century by Thomas Thomas is a French Economist and this is a very famous book that's been that's been recently published and in the book he looked at the past 100 Years of economic growth and what he discovered that over time is the uh Financial economy grows faster than the real economy Capital grows faster than manufacturing okay so if you look at Capital grows at 5% real economy grows at 2% right if things stay stable over time this will happen to all societies Capital will grow faster than the real economy what this means is let's just say you have a million dollars okay I have a million dollars I have different options to invest my money I can start a factory or I can start or I can put all my money into real estate or the stock market where should I put my money I can I can I can open a factory right or I can put it in a stock market where should where should I put my money yes and why exactly do you understand if you have money today you do not put your money into the factories you do not open a new business you put it in the stock market because you make more money that way way what's the problem with that it's yeah exactly it's just a bubble guys okay why is it a bubble because money isn't real Capital isn't real it's a fiction you understand so in other words you you don't work anymore you understand you're just renting now okay okay you you're engaging in the rent sicking Behavior we have too many people doing that you have a society where nobody works does that make sense nobody does any work because all the wealth is being put into rent sying Behavior it's being put into speculation so no one's doing any more work no one's creating more wealth and this eventually leads to social collaps at some point okay does it make sense all right so Peter turon's theory of elite overproduction is because the number of rich people can only go up over time your Society must collapse at some point unless you choose to have a revolution or you have a civil war or you go invade other countries okay those are your three options but you but if you did that that creates more instability so over time no matter how how you structure your Society it will collapse does that make sense okay so that's what happened during the branch it collapse where these societies must in Greece hitit Egypt Canan they were fundamentally unstable because of rcking behavior okay same thing with the Mayans where okay they were going very fast but eventually they collapsed all societies will do this at some point no Society is stable okay and the reason why is you have an elite in charge who help Society grow but over time they will just engage in reding Behavior which will eventually lead to collapse of society does that make sense right and this is a pattern that we'll see over and over again in human history and we will discuss this idea throughout the semester all right does it make sense any questions all right so let's look at a very specific example of wrestling Behavior Uh my in Greece all right my in Greece so my in Greece um and you may remember this from last class it was a long time ago but last class we talked about the Y yah right the yah right they conquered Europe so the messan Greece and the he titites are direct descendants of the anayah and as you remember this is a warrior culture okay so these societies are Warrior societies meaning like the Warriors are in charge and they have a system called a pal economy right a palace economy a palace economy is basically the palace is at the center of society and everyone brings their wealth to the Palace to be redistributed to everyone else okay so the idea here is we're all Farmers right and maybe you have 100 100 uh F of wheat maybe 20 bushes of corn okay everyone brings everything to the palace and then the king redistributes the everything to you okay but obviously he takes a cut understand so this is called ring Behavior where I'm where you're basically paying taxes okay does it make sense okay now this is fine when when things are good okay but if there the weather becomes bad the system starts to collapse why if the weather is bad things start to uh become chaotic why Okay the reason why is the elite still want their cut you understand it's not like oh this year the weather's bad so let's just suffer together okay let's make sacrifices together no it's like no we don't care the weather is bad you still have to pay our pay our cut okay you still have to pay your taxes right and that creates strain on the people the people get very angry okay so we have evidence that during the bran age there was a internal Revolt in in m and Greece and the reason why is we can dig up M and Greece okay the palace and we what we see is the palace is burnt down but the surrounding houses are fine okay does that make sense we also have written records uh from my in Greece that show how the pal economy worked okay we can also dig up the graves of the Kings and show that over time they became wealthier and wealthier because um when they were buried the things they were buried with were became were were very expensive okay does that make sense okay um so that's my say in gree any questions so far are guys clear clear about this idea Okay so so what a lot of scholars believe is that this is the Bron collapse was a unique event in European history and what I'm trying to show you is it was not a unique event it was not a revolution it's just part of the natural cycle of History because when you have an elite who engage in reding Behavior eventually this Society will collapse because you have too many Elite who want their cut okay and when we look at other societies you would you would discover this this pattern repeats itself all right so this is this is Peter turchin his theory of elite over production are we clear yes okay right so okay let me clarify about my in Greece okay all right the problem is that you have too many rich people who want to charge rent right and that creates pressure on society and this instability means that your Society is no longer resilient okay resilient and then you idea of resilience is that it survives disasters right so think of a tower that's about to collapse okay it will not collapse on its own something must hit it for for it to collapse but this one thing could be anything okay it could be the people get angry and they Riot it could be the weather turns bad okay it could be there's an earthquake it could be there's an invasion does does that make sense so these different societies okay m in Greece High ties uh the canites um they collaps for different reasons but the fundamental reason is because their societies were unstable the reason why they were unstable is you you had too many Elite people trying to charge rent on everyone else does that make sense okay any any more questions but that a good question thank you excuse me oh can you avoid the cycle in today Society okay that's a great question and the answer is no okay um it is impossible to build a society um that that is stable over a long period of time in fact you can make the argument that it is good for societies to rise and fall okay it's the same thing as it's it's really the same question as is it possible for us to live forever is it possible for us to live forever then the question then is why would we want to live forever you understand Innovation happens when we die okay so what's amazing about about the branch age collapse is because the branch age collapsed m in gree changed into a new society that gave us Greek civilization which then gave us Western Civilization okay so in other words if my gree not collapsed we would not have today also because Kine collapsed a new Society came into being called the Israelites okay Israel and Israel gave us what you guys know the Bible right and guess what guys the Greeks and the Bible the two foundations of Western Civilization so we would not have Western Civilization if this Society not collap and new cies could come into being all right so you can make the argument that Innovation progress is driven by death and collapse all right you understand and if we if if we not die if we if we not if we did not die s not collapse there' be no progress okay does it make sense but that's a good question okay but but um and people have been debating this question for a long time but I think the answer is it is impossible to build a society that lives forever even though people have tried and also we shouldn't even try Okay because collapse is good also think of a force fire do have you studied Force fires in school in science class Force fires Force fires guys each time there's a force fire okay the force burns down that's good because it allows the force to regenerate and become stronger right what happens if you don't have a force fire do you guys know okay the resilience goes down okay and also the ecosystem is less vibrant there are less there are less animals the trees are less strong okay do you understand so that's why it's important to burn down the forest now and then you don't burn down the forest and there's then it's less resilient so there's a big Force fire it will will just spread and destroy the entire Forest okay does that make sense so it's good for societies to constantly change over time okay any more questions okay that's a great great question okay all right so before we talk about egarian societies right how they were at most 10,000 people and they did have an elite okay they had an elite they had people in charge but this Elite didn't own the property there's no private property okay so it's egarian and so these societies were pretty stable Okay the reason why is um usually it was the woman in charge and a woman could were good at controlling population okay because as a woman you have control over your body so you could choose not to have children or have less children and it was very peaceful right people didn't really fight because there's nothing to fight over everything was owned by everyone else okay the problem with e societies are these three things okay they're less organized meaning like they are less willing or less able to create public projects okay they have less wealth and therefore they have less scale okay you can have at most 10,000 people which means what which means like eventually they'll be conquered okay does that make sense because if you are one of these societies okay you're an Empire you must constantly expand in order to um police the elite basically okay either you expand or you fight a civil war and so you take over egarian societies and you make them into your Society okay do you understand so for most of human history we're egalitarian but that's because we didn't have that many people right but over time as population increases then you are less egalitarian you become more unequal you stay egalitarian you will eventually be conquered by a um not not an egarian Society does does that make sense all right all right but that's a great question you're exactly right okay for most of human history we're egalitarian but once we start to develop Elite societies okay kingdoms then they could easily conquer egalitarian societies right any more questions but but that's that's a fantastic question okay any more questions and when we do um so we are skipping ahead but we do Samaria Samaria which is basically um many different city states in Iraq M Mesopotamia what we what we will discover is that there are different social structures okay there are different social structures including societies that were egalitarian but when you're in competition with each other societies that are more organized more wealthy now bigger populations will always win out over other societies okay you have these three things you need a permanent teritary Elite because then they are more incentivized in order to um work harder okay does that make sense and then the question then is okay why is that true um in this true because for societies to become wealthier you don't need everyone to work hard you just need a certain number of people to work hard you just need a small group of people to work hard it does that make sense so think of like China right how China became wealthier uh these past 30 40 years and the reason why is you had a small number of entrepreneurs who worked really really hard okay not everyone worked hard okay but because you have these people who did work really hard trying to become Warfare does that make sense okay any more questions okay so great okay so again what makes this class different uh from other classes is we are looking at the entire scope of human history all right and so it's very important for you to not un not remember the facts okay I I don't need you to remember the facts okay I don't need you to remember my grees or the SE people but I do need you to remember the concepts and the ideas okay how the world history is constantly in competition with each other and why is it that some ideas went out over other ideas okay so I'm not saying this is the best idea okay I'm not saying a permanent heritor Elite is a really good idea I don't think it's a good idea okay but I'm showing you why it wins out and how it impacts human and the development of civilization does that make sense okay okay any more questions okay well that's it um