okay so let's begin begin class and today we are discussing whether or not Trump will win in November and I'm making the prediction that he will win in November and that he will pick Nikki Haley as his vice president okay so let me make you the argument today okay so let's first discuss why Biden won in 2020 and why it's possible that he may lose this year okay so in 2020 it was a very special year in American politics because it was a large it was the largest turnout in American history since about 1900 okay so 74 million people voted for Trump Biden uh for Biden 81 million people voted for him and two out of every three American adults came out to vote okay so was the largest turnout uh in American history um it doesn't it sounds like a very uh lopsided victory for Biden 81 million versus 74 million but because America hasn't been called an electoral college system um which is not direct democracy actually the margin of victory was only 65,000 votes meaning that if 65 th000 people in key Battleground States flip their votes than Trump would have won okay so the margin of victory was very very close as is usually the case in highly contested American elections so let's understand the Coalition that brought Biden into the White House okay so the first uh major component of this Coalition are black people 91% % of All Blacks voted for Biden only 8% voted for Trump that's a huge majority for Biden so why did so many black people vote vote for Biden in 2020 well first of all it's because Biden was Obama's vice president for eight years and so a lot of older black people had a certain loyalty to him okay they felt that we owe this man because he served loyal loyally to our men Barack Obama for years and so so now we must bring him into the White House but this year the debt is paid off right so they won't feel so loyal to Biden okay also in 20120 there's something called a George Floyd protest so what happened was that um in May 2020 a black man in Minneapolis George Floyd he was strangled to death by a white police officer it was captured on video and it caused a natural uproar in fact um there were riots and protests throughout the country and Trump came out um and did not acknowledge the pain that black people felt because of this death and so black people felt um antipathy towards Trump okay so these are the two major reasons why black people voted for Biden in 2020 but this year uh Trump's not in office right Biden's in office so black people are asking the question what has Biden done for us these past four years and unfortunately the answer is um not that much and in fact you can make the argument that Biden has really hurt the standard of living of black people why because um inflation has gone up okay when inflation goes up um it usually hurts poor people the most okay the of living goes way down also illegal immigration has gone up okay so in 2010 2020 when Trump left office there were about 10 million illegal immigrants in America now there are 20 million illegal immigrants in America and it seems like B's doing nothing to stop uh this trend and of course when illegal immigrants come to the country they usually take the jobs of poor people okay they bring wages down and that again hurts black people and then third is Ukraine so while the stand of living for black people and other poor people in America are going down America is sending tens of billions of dollars to Ukraine to fight a war that has nothing to do with um America so many Americans see this as black as just bad leadership okay so that's black people uh and and recent polls show that actually um Biden's lead uh with black people is not as much as it was in 2020 okay so this this lead is going down uh young people okay what young people tend to vote Democratic in all elections um and they were extremely galv ized uh to vote in 2020 because they saw Trump as this very hateful racist that they must remove from office right and they they were driven to believe this because of the George Floyd protest unfortunately this year young people may not feel compelled to vote for Biden in fact a lot of young people are choosing to set out this election why you guys know Gaza okay okay so as you know right now throughout America on college campuses young people are protesting the war in Gaza um so these young people are not going to vote for Trump but they probably will not vote for Biden as a protest against American policy uh VI Israel okay now let's look at the college educated okay so 70% of people with college degrees voted for Biden the these are are what we call the um Coastal Elite right the coastal professional uh managerial Elite and they usually overwhelmingly vote Democratic and this year they will still sit the same but they will be less enthusiastic because of what they perceived to be poor Global Leadership okay Biden under Biden's watch Ukraine blew up but so did Gaza and many are starting to feel that it's because Biden comes across as too old too weak and too feeble to S against Putin okay so college educated people will still overwhelming vote Democratic that is the core democratic base but they'll be less enthusiastic about Biden and they'll vote primarily uh against Trump okay women okay so 54% of women uh voted for for Biden 44% voted for Trump okay and again um because Trump is seen as this hateful figure uh we should we expect that woman will still consistently vote Democratic this year okay and also because of abortion issues right so um women are very passionate about abortion and they will come out and vote for Biden to ensure that abortion rights are protected last look at let's look at sub Suburban voters okay so the suburbs the suburbs are between the cities the urban areas and the rural areas okay cities urban areas overwhelmingly support the Democratic party rural areas overwhelmingly overwhelmingly support the Republican party so the suburbs um are where the Battleground is and so if you look at 19 uh sorry um 2016 when Trump defeated Hillary Clinton only 45% of the suburbs voted for Clinton which allowed Trump to defeat her in the election Okay now what's interesting is that in 2020 this flipped and 54% of uh Suburban voters voted for Biden that's a flip of 2 million voters okay so in elections usually it's a Suburban vote that determines the election because the the swing voters okay um so for Trump to win this year he needs to win the Suburban vote he won that in 2016 he lost that in 2020 okay so let's examine very quickly um why the suburbs went Biden in 2020 okay and there are three major reasons the first is the media narrative so what was happening for out uh Trump's presidency is basically the entire mainstream media got together and criticize Trump okay so the first major criticism of trump if you if you remember is he was a Russian asset okay he was a paid Putin puppet and of course course that was just a complete lie what we call rugate okay but then they start to say that Trump was a divisive figure okay and this idea caught the imagination of the suburbs okay because if you live in the suburbs you tend to be middle class you tend to be pretty wealthy and well educated so you like the status quo you want a leader who's conservative and who's a un fire and throughout the Trump presidency we saw the polarization of Politics the left and the right hated each other and they fought all the time and what really showed this was the George Floyd protest right so you had um protesters rioting in the streets and Trump was like let's send in the military to crush the protesters and so people in the suburbs were very worried about this thought that a leader the President should be a uniter right and Biden uh came across as extremely steady as as very establishment as someone who could unite both the Republican party and the Democratic party okay that was his perception in 2020 so that's the first major reason why the suburbs went Biden second um was the pandemic so as you know Co hit the United States and the suburbs were extremely freaked out about this because they they T they tend have children who go to school um they tend to be um older and they thought that Trump's handling of the P pandemic was very incompetent okay he W he he was an outsider a political Outsider but that meant he could not get things done in Washington okay so that's a second uh problem with Trump and the third reason reason why the sub the suburbs went uh Biden is Cal Harris okay and this is key uh Biden picked Kam Cala Harris to be his vice president to be his running mate and Kamala Harris uh let me tell you a little about Kamala Harris her father is Jamaican her mother is Indian and uh she has a she has she has a younger sister but when she she was young her dad left the family so her mom raised um the two girls by herself and um Harris is an extremely accomplished person she went to Stanford then then she became uh Attorney General of California then became a US senator okay and there are three reasons why the suburbs love Camila Harris okay first of all um like us okay meaning like she comes across as someone who speaks and thinks like people in the suburbs okay well educated uh articulate smart conservative okay second is she seemed as very establishment meaning that she's not liberal in fact when she was Attorney General of C California she was extremely tough on crime she was trying to send as many people to jail as possible and sometimes quite honestly some of the of these people were innocent okay and she still and she still sent them to jail okay that she was very controversial as uh attorney general but guess what guys people in the suburbs like tough on crime okay they want safety they want security because they have kids okay and the third reason why they like coming out here is is because of the Redemption story so um in 2019 there is a Democratic primary okay this is when uh the Democrats try to get a nomination for the general election okay and there was a lot of people um who who are vying for the nomination including Joe Biden and K Harris in June 2019 there were there was the first democratic debate okay not this point Kam Harris and Joe Biden were considered very uh heavy favorites to win the nomination and in that first debate K Harris and Joe Biden got into a very nasty argument on television okay so what happened is that K harrish turned to Joe Biden and Joe Biden is kind of Shell Shocked okay he's he's kind of old and he and like Kam Harris is directing her words at him and he doesn't really want to see her okay Hees he doesn't really want to confront her and um what Kam Harris says to Joe Biden is Joe you've been you've been in Washington DC for 50 years and some of your policies I don't support for example you did not support the integration of black and white students together well you know what Joe I'm a black student I was a black little girl girl gr up in the 70s in California and I got my opportunity to succeed in America because of integration because I could go to white school and you opposed my opportunity to succeed okay so basically um she was calling Biden a racist and at that point everyone thought that okay well if Biden gets a ination there's no way he's going to pick her to be the VP okay and then he picks her to be the VP and so what do people think about Biden what what do people people think of Biden what impression do people get because of this anyone yes okay exactly okay doesn't doesn't hold grudges what else what else what else doesn't hold grudges he's a very forgiving man what else good yes he listens right he's a listener he's a team player okay and he has empathy okay he understands that voters want Comm Harris okay and guess what guys these three things doesn't hold grudges listens team player and empathy this is anti-trump right this is the antitrump and because of this narrative women especially women in the suburbs went for Biden okay previously they had gone for Trump now they they went for Biden because as it turns out women want um compassionate empathetic leadership that is the decisive and bold but um is also um tolerant okay and that this is also why even though Hillary Clinton like ran in 2016 and she was a woman the suburbs didn't vote for her because she was she didn't come across as someone who was compassionate and forgiving and tolerant okay does that make sense and this is why uh Biden was able to win in in 2020 so this year what can Trump do to win the suburbs what can he do yeah he can copy this exact same thing okay and it turns out he can do this okay why because uh on the Republican side there's someone called Nikki ke Nikki Kelly oh sorry Nikki haly and Nikki Haley is very similar to cala Harris okay Nikki Haley her parents are Indian immigrants okay so she's Indian she's of South Asian uh uh descent and her family was not very wealthy but she worked hard and she became Cal she became South Carolina governor for two two for two terms and then she joined the Trump Administration as un Ambassador in 2016 Okay now what's interesting about Nikki Haley is that Nicki Hy ran against Trump in the Republican primary okay and even though she lost to Trump there was a group of people who loved her guess who just loved her who voted for her in droves guess guess what what demographic group anyone Suburban woman okay do you understand college educated Suburban woman okay so in other words if Trump brings her on to the ticket then it's very likely he can swing the suburbs back to him and win the election but there's a problem the problem is that Nikki Haley and Trump got into a very nasty fight during the primary okay so Nikki Haley said listen I served under Trump and I think he's he's a divisive figure and right now in our country we we need a unifier that's why I'm running for president because I want to unite this country whereas Trump will can only divide this country okay and then Trump being Trump responds and says Nikki haly is a bird brain she's stupid okay so you think you you see this you think like there's no way Trump will pick her because Nick H is not loyal to Trump right and Trump likes loyalty also hey guys Trump holds grudges right and he doesn't listen and he's not a team player and he lacks empathy so there's no way he would pick Nikki Haley and in fact um this past week there's there's been new news report that Nikki Haley is in consideration to be Trump's vice president and Trump came out and said I am not considering Nicki Hy okay but let me ask you this question if in August during the Republic Republican convention he does pick Nicki heli how would people feel about him how would the media report this Nikki Haley is an enemy of Trump trump called her a bird brain Trump said I will never pick Nikki Hy and then in August uh three months from now he says you know what I was wrong I think Nicki Hy is the best person to be my VP that's why she'll be my running mate in November how people feel about him what what would the suburbs think about Trump how would you feel if you saw this he's a changed man right Trump has grown remember like the narrative about Trump is he is a 5-year-old child and remember like people were like don't insult 5-year-old CH children like that okay 5-year-old children are much more mature than Trump so the argument about Trump is he he's divisive but much more than that he's immature he's incapable of growth okay but hey if in August he picks Nikki hilly to be his VP then the media will be like he is a changed man he's learned his lessons he's willing to let go of grudges he's willing to listen he now has empathy therefore he should be president okay do you understand the then what happens is the suburbs switch over to Trump and then he wins so if he picks Nicki Haley in August he will win okay I'm not completely sure that he will pick Nikki haly I think that this is his best strategic move okay but Trump is not really predictable all right and who he picks as vice president will give us a good clue as to how he will govern when he be when he becomes president okay does that make sense all right now the question then is okay who is Nikki haly and what will she do as vice president Okay now what's important to understand about Nikki Haley is that when she left office when she left Washington DC Poli office in in 2018 she had nothing in her bank account okay she had no money in her bank account now she has $1 million in her bank account and she lives in a $5 million mansion so where did she get this money okay she got her she got this money mainly for an organization called United against a nuclear Iran okay and this organization's primary purpose is to create conflict between United States and Iran okay they they go against any companies or individuals who support Iran United States who does business with Iran okay they are a very anti-iranian uh organization one their main donors his name is Sheldon elderson and Sheldon elderson is an extremely pro-israel business person okay he he owns a lot a lot of casinos okay so MGM SS uh he's he's a billionaire and what's interesting about sandel uh sandal elderson he's dead okay but he was the main patron of of a man named Benjamin nanyu okay he is the main political Patron and financial donor to Benjamin nanyu so Sheldon Ellison supports both nanyu and supports this organization called United against a nuclear Iran and United against a nuclear Iran hired um Nikki haly and paid her a lot of money okay that's the first thing second thing is is that in 2019 she got a job of Boeing Boeing is a weapons manufacturer they make airplanes but they mainly make bombs and missiles okay so they love war she sat on the board of Boeing a extremely prestigious job and she was paid $300,000 just to sit on the board and do nothing okay she has also given speeches at an organization called Christians United for Israel and you may remember that this is a 7 million strong organization that supports war in the Middle East they are evangelic Christians they are dispensation um premillennialists who believe that war between Israel and Iran will bring Jesus back to Earth Earth and establish the kingdom of heaven and therefore they want as much conflict in the Middle East as possible okay so all this is telling us is that if nikii becomes vice president her main responsibility will be to agitate for war against Iran okay she'll be the one in the white house pushing for war in Iran escalating tensions in Iran okay so Nikki Hy okay what's also interesting is okay in January 2019 basically the primary is over Trump has won everything okay but in January 2019 even after Trump won Haley was able to raise more money than Trump so Haley got about $12 million from donors Trump gets got1 million okay and the only explanation for this is these donors knew that hilly would not become president she could not be Trump but they were trying to position her to be his vice president by making her uh stay in the race and giving her as much publicity as possible in fact even though she dropped out the race she's still getting about um 25% to 33% of all Republican votes okay so she comes across as an extremely popular establishment figure okay so does does this make sense okay so the conclusion is that given um the way the situation in the United States it seems very likely Trump will win in 2024 okay because the Biden Coalition will not pull together because of inflation illegal immigration what's happening in Gaza what's happening in Ukraine Trump looks very strong right now and the poll suggests that either the race is tied between the two or Trump has slight Advantage okay Trump can basically seal the victory if he picks Nikki Haley to be his vice president because Nicki haly will turn the suburbs to him very strongly and it's a suburbs that basically decide uh us elections and as vice president what she will be doing is agitating for war against Iran which means that she's on the payroll of anti-iranian forces in the United States okay so any question questions anything you're not clear about right now okay so Jack asked a great question okay he's like what if Haley holds a grudge and says no right um and quite honestly she has been asked in the past are you willing to serve as Trump's vice president and she's like no because he's a divider he's divisive and we need to move on from Trump okay all right um do you guys remember um in class when we studied Trump very closely his personality we looked at his days in the WWWE okay and there was a scene where V Vince McMahon the owner of WWE a billionaire challenges Trump to a fight right well guess what guys politics is the same thing it's all theater okay politics is theater what Nicki Haley and Donald Trump are doing is pretending to be bitter enemies so that so that their reconciliation will be so dramatic you understand um so Nicki Hy served under Trump in the first Administration okay so from 2016 to 2018 she was UN Ambassador for Trump and everyone says that the two got along really well in fact um Trump was considering having her be his VP running made in 2020 he was speaking of dropping Pence and putting her on the ticket okay so the two of them together actually have a great Rapport the two respect each other they get along very well okay so that's the first thing second thing is that the thing to know about very successful politicians is they are first and foremost opportunists they have no ideas they have no principles all they care about is political power right so why would Nicki Haley agree to be vice president why because it's one step away from the presidency do you understand if anything happens to Trump she's president and in four years time she can run as the Republican nominee for the presidency okay does that make sense okay so that's a thing you you need to know about politicians okay all they care care about is political power they would do anything to achieve polical power they will they will sell their own mother okay to achieve polical power but that's the same thing for rich people okay rich people love money they will do anything to get money okay sell their own mother fine okay you understand also celebrities famous people right all they care about is Fame okay so do you understand Jack all right any more questions I is this clear to you guys uh is there anything you're not clear about I I I'll explain further okay so um Jack asked a great question okay well listen like I can figure this out just by reading the news right Biden has an amazing team of extremely well-paid professional experience strategist working with him they know this they can see what's going on so what can Buton do to counter Trump's strategy or the polls okay and the answer is this um if you look at 2020 everyone thought that Biden uh could not get the nomination okay why because he lacks Charisma no one really likes him okay so when Biden goes to speak there's no one there to listen to him he's boring um and he has no ideas and he's old I mean Biden ran for president two times before and he lost both times and the reason why is he's not charismatic and he has no ideas okay but Biden's like nope I'm going to stay in the race because I believe I can win and and you ask him Biden what is your strategy what is your reasoning going forward I don't know I'm gonna win okay um so if we were discussing this in 2020 in May and June I would be like Biden has no chance okay because Trump's GNA go out there and give speeches to a 100,000 people and they're gonna love him and they're gonna go and vote for him okay Biden gives a speech everyone falls asleep and on the debate stage Trump will destroy Biden okay so I was sure that in May April 2020 Biden had no chance but then what happened hey the George Floyd protest happened so all these young people who didn't really like Biden they were now galvanized to go vote vote for him all these black people all these Suburban voters they wanted Biden to win because they thought Trump was divisive okay and then what happened the pandemic happened so Trump couldn't go out to debate they Trump couldn't go out to campaign anymore you understand Biden could just sit in his basement and do nothing right do you understand so unfortunately Biden learned the wrong lessons from 2020 the lesson that he learned in 2020 is that hey if I just sit in my basement all day and make no mistakes my surrogates the Democratic party will Hillary Clinton Bill Clinton Barack Obama they'll go out and give speeches for me they'll fire up the base and I'll win because I'm not Trump okay that is the entire B strategy I'm not Trum okay the problem with this idea is okay um in 2020 the American people had four years of trump and they know he sucks okay the problem now is the American people have seen four years of Biden and Biden sucks as well okay and so it's a question like who sucks more Biden or Trump okay so in other words people are not going to come out to vote because they think both suck and which means that the party with a coalition with a base that feels more strongly about the issues is going to come out to vote okay and what we know is that the Republican Coalition of rural voters conservatives Christians um white voters they feel much more passionate about Trump then the Democratic Coalition feels about Biden okay does that make sense so unfortunately the answer is that Biden has no strategy going forward because he didn't have a strategy going forward in 2020 and he won in 2020 so why can't the same thing happen in same happened this year right and unfortunately because Biden is so old he's 81 he doesn't have the energy to change the way he is you understand it's much easier for him to sit around and pray that I'm not Trump will deliver another election than it is for him to go out and change who he is he can't change who he is okay does that make sense okay but but that's a great question all right any any more um questions before okay so again I am not sure who will win this year okay I think it's Trump I'm not sure that Nikki Haley will be his vice president I'm just making a guess so then then the question then is why are we doing this and the answer is this we try to think we have to build an analytical model right of how the world works and the only way we know if this model works or not is by making predictions and testing it against reality okay so you know what it's possible that in August um Trump will pick someone else okay possibly someone named JD Vance okay um the only thing you need you need to know about J vent is he's very loyal to Trump okay it's possible he picks he picks JD vents okay I think he'll pick Nicki Hy I often actually um I often think that there's a very good chance he picks JD v as well okay but I but but I'll make the bet that he picks Nikki Hy okay so it's possible in August he does not pick Nicki Nicki H picks shie Vance or someone else instead okay it's also possible that in November Trump loses okay but that's fine because because if if I'm wrong then what I do is I go back to this analysis and I make changes to anal this analysis so so that it's much more reflective and accurate okay does that make sense okay and and that's how we try to think critically about the World by building an an models that we can then test against reality and then ba and then based on what happens in reality we can go and refine our anical model right any any questions Okay so next week um we discuss the war in Iran okay because if you look at uh this again if Nikki Haley becomes the uh vice president it is very likely she will agitate for War uh against Iran uh and Trump will go along okay and if that's the case then we we need to understand how America will fight the war and how Iran will respond and that's what what we will we will do next week okay